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Election night · Details

Every analyst’s bar, hour by hour

At each poll closing: the number to look at, and what named analysts said a fair, good or great night for Democrats would look like. We report their bars; we don’t predict.

Twelve DegreesRelease 1216 markersBuilt Mon Nov 2 2026, 9:54 PM ET

Before the polls close

First polls close at 6:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Nov 3

Polls close first in the Eastern-time parts of Indiana and Kentucky. These are the first numbers to watch.

Times are Eastern (ET).

IN-05 · BarGreat night pending

D (J.D. Ford) wins

“it's going to be a really, really, really good night”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“Indiana's 5th of what they would say,oh boy, it's going to be a really, really, really good night.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
KY-06 · BarGreat night pending

D loses narrowly (close) → very good night still possible

“Democrats still have a very good night”

David Nir, Publisher, The Downballot (podcast intro)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“keep your mind open for the possibility that Democrats still have a very good night.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
IN-05 · BarGreat night pending

D margin close to even or D ahead

“a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
2024 baseline
A swing of about 16.8 points toward D from 2024 (IN-05 was -16.8 for Harris, 2024 presidential).

Go to this hour in the timeline

Big picture

National bars: House seats, Senate seats and the national vote, from floor to great night. These build all night and may not settle until Wednesday or later.

House seats

218 seats is a majority. Democrats hold 214 now.

TierThe numberIn their wordsWho
Fair / floorD+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase)Politix hosts
ForecastD+9 'very likely'; D seats 230-245“very likely”Politix hosts
ForecastD seats = 235Matt Yglesias
ForecastD seats > 235Kyle Kondik
ForecastD House ~236; Senate 52-48 DJason Villalba
ForecastD House seats = 239at least Leans D (paraphrase)J. Miles Coleman
ForecastD House seats = 239 (P(D House) 92%)Lakshya Jain
ForecastD 239-196 (D+24)Alan Abramowitz
ForecastD net gain 12-25 (up to 240 seats)Erin Covey
ForecastR net House loss ~25 (D ~240)Erick Erickson
ForecastD seats = 242Brian Beutler
Necessary conditionD+8 to D+10 may still mean 50 D seats; ~1 pt better → 53-54Politix hosts
Good nightD seats ≥ 50 (NC, OH, ME pickups) = floor“which would be a good night that felt like death”Addisu Demissie
Great nightD net House gain ~20 and D wins AK, NC, ME Senate only = blue wave“they range from blue wave, to big ass blue wave, to blue tsunami”Rachel Bitecofer
ForecastD net gain 12-25 seats (Cook ratings)“more than enough for a majority”Dave Wasserman
ForecastD wins both House and Senate (more likely than not, 50+1 forecast)“more likely than not”G. Elliott Morris
ForecastD net gain 20-30Jacob Rubashkin
ForecastD seats = 50 at Lean D or better (47 Safe/Likely + 3 Lean)Scott Rasmussen
Forecastoutcome = big ass blue wave (middle tier of her ladder)“BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave”Rachel Bitecofer

Senate seats

51 seats is a majority (50 plus the vice president is R control). Democrats caucus with 47 now.

TierThe numberIn their wordsWho
Warning signD net gain ≤ 2 (51-49 R) = success for Republicans“a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans”Kyle Kondik
Fair / floorD+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase)Politix hosts
Fair / floorD flips NC, TX, ME, OH and holds MI = bare majority“minimum viable product”Nate Silver
Necessary conditionD+8 to D+10 may still mean 50 D seats; ~1 pt better → 53-54Politix hosts
Good nightD seats ≥ 50 (NC, OH, ME pickups) = floor“which would be a good night that felt like death”Addisu Demissie
Good nightD Senate seats ≥ 52“the real number”Politix hosts
Great nightD 50-51 with OH + TX; 52-54 adds IA/AK/KS; D wins NE/SC/MS = wave“Then let's get weird with NE/SC/MS in a wave.”Addisu Demissie
Great nightD+9 nationally with 5-6 Senate flipsgreat (the big outcome) (paraphrase)Politix hosts
Great nightmajority secured without AK and ME → election-night call“Alaska- and Maine-proof majority”Nathaniel Rakich
Great nightD net +6-7 = big wave from low GOP turnout; +1-2 otherwise“netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven”Domenico Montanaro
Great nightD natl margin ≥ +11 and D net Senate gain ≥ 7“a mega-tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in decades”Sean Trende
Great nightD net Senate gain 1-2 = normal wave“a normal wave election is D+1, maybe D+2 in the senate”Sean Trende
Great nightD net House gain ~20 and D wins AK, NC, ME Senate only = blue wave“they range from blue wave, to big ass blue wave, to blue tsunami”Rachel Bitecofer
Great nightD also wins OH, IA, TX, KS, NE Senate = big ass blue wave“B.A.B.W.”Rachel Bitecofer
ForecastD wins both House and Senate (more likely than not, 50+1 forecast)“more likely than not”G. Elliott Morris
ForecastSeat #50 = TX-Sen, seat #51 = ME-SenLakshya Jain
ForecastD seats = 50 at Lean D or better (47 Safe/Likely + 3 Lean)Scott Rasmussen
ForecastD Senate seats = 51“fall a little short”Matt Yglesias
ForecastD House ~236; Senate 52-48 DJason Villalba
ForecastD Senate seats = 53Brian Beutler
ForecastD Senate seats = 53at least Leans D (paraphrase)J. Miles Coleman
ForecastD Senate seats = 53 (P(D Senate) 77%)Lakshya Jain
ForecastD 53-47 (D+6)Alan Abramowitz
ForecastP(D control) = 54% (fundamentals-only model; 46% if presidential correlation stays at current levels)Patrick Ruffini
ForecastFlanagan (MN) and Pappas (NH) win; Angie Nixon (FL) and Adam Hamilton (KS) leads are mirages“chalkier”Politix hosts
ForecastD flips both AZ chambers; regains NV trifecta; breaks through in WI; restores MN and MI trifectas; flips PA Senate (trifecta); takes ≥ 1 NH chamberPolitix hosts
ForecastP(D Senate) = 0.75, possibly toward 0.80G. Elliott Morris
Forecastoutcome = big ass blue wave (middle tier of her ladder)“BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave”Rachel Bitecofer

National vote and exit polls

The national margin and who turned out.

TierThe numberIn their wordsWho
Fair / floorD+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase)Politix hosts
Good nightR share of independents < 46%“Republicans have done well”Domenico Montanaro
Good nightD party-ID share of electorate far above 31%“far higher than 31%”Domenico Montanaro
Good nightD margin with 18-29 > +20“they have done well”Domenico Montanaro
Great nightD+9 nationally with 5-6 Senate flipsgreat (the big outcome) (paraphrase)Politix hosts
Great nightRs vote 10-15% D and independents break hard D = blue wave“A “blue wave” won’t come from D turnout (alone)”Addisu Demissie

Governors and legislatures

Counts across the states.

TierThe numberIn their wordsWho
Warning signD lose more than a handful of 'good' races“could leave them disappointed, or worse”Ronald Brownstein
ForecastD flips both AZ chambers; regains NV trifecta; breaks through in WI; restores MN and MI trifectas; flips PA Senate (trifecta); takes ≥ 1 NH chamberPolitix hosts
ForecastD: WI, NV, GA, OH, AK, MI, AZ governor; R: KS, VT, NH, TX, FL governor“WI: likely Dem NV: tilt Dem GA: lean Dem OH: lean Dem”Lakshya Jain
ForecastD wins a clear majority of governorships (≥ 26 by our reading)“in good shape to grab a clear majority of governors”Kyle Kondik
ForecastD governorships = 28at least Leans D (paraphrase)J. Miles Coleman

Model reference: what each national margin implies

Split Ticket’s model, seats by national environment (chart data dated Nov 2, 2026). A model output, not an analyst’s bar.

National marginHouse D seatsSenate D seats
D+421748
D+522049
D+622550
D+722951
D+823452
D+923953
D+1024454
D+1124955

Source: Split Ticket on The Argument, Datawrapper 91VuY v5.

All national marker cards (51)
US-Senate · BarWarning sign pending

D net gain ≤ 2 (51-49 R) = success for Republicans

“a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans”

Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball final ratings byline), Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“Such a result now would be a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans, who now appear to be underdogs”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-composite · BarWarning sign pending

D lose more than a handful of 'good' races

“could leave them disappointed, or worse”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“lose more than a handful of the races in the “good” category, it will indicate the results could leave them disappointed, or worse.”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-generic · BarFair / floor pending

D+6 nationally, ~227 D House seats, Senate net D+3

fair (mood turned, doesn't stop Trump) (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarFair / floor pending

D flips NC, TX, ME, OH and holds MI = bare majority

“minimum viable product”

Nate Silver, Founder, Silver Bulletin (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Substack

“Democrats basically achieve “minimum viable product” by flipping North Carolina, Texas, Maine and Ohio, and just barely holding onto Michigan.”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarNecessary condition pending

D+8 to D+10 may still mean 50 D seats; ~1 pt better → 53-54

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
county:Tarrant TX; county:Washoe NV; Cobb County GA school board · BarGood night pending

D flips these local governments/boards

“other major things Dems could flip in a good night”

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“—the local gov of Tarrant County, Texas —the local gov of Washoe County, Nevada —the school board of Cobb County, Georgia”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarGood night pending

D Senate seats ≥ 52

“the real number”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-generic · BarGood night pending

R share of independents < 46%

“Republicans have done well”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven't, they've lost.”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-generic · BarGood night pending

D party-ID share of electorate far above 31%

“far higher than 31%”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“they are likely going to have to be far higher than 31% as a share of the electorate to do well.”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-generic · BarGood night pending

D margin with 18-29 > +20

“they have done well”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“In the last 20 years, when Democrats won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarGood night pending

D seats ≥ 50 (NC, OH, ME pickups) = floor

“which would be a good night that felt like death”

Addisu Demissie, Democratic strategist: 'I do politics ... Fmr CM @CoryBooker & @GavinNewsom' (X bio); 50+1 Strategies (50p1.com)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“This is why my floor is 50 (NC, OH, ME would be the 3 pickups), which would be a good night that felt like death.”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarGreat night pending

majority secured without AK and ME → election-night call

“Alaska- and Maine-proof majority”

Nathaniel Rakich, Managing editor, Votebeat; ex-FiveThirtyEight (Bluesky bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · Bluesky

“I think one party needs an Alaska- and Maine-proof majority if we're going to get a call on election night this year.”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-generic · BarGreat night pending

D+9 nationally with 5-6 Senate flips

great (the big outcome) (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarGreat night pending

D net +6-7 = big wave from low GOP turnout; +1-2 otherwise

“netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline)

Oct 30, 2026 · Web

“Low GOP turnout could mean the difference between Democrats netting one or two seats and picking up six or seven.”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarGreat night pending

D 50-51 with OH + TX; 52-54 adds IA/AK/KS; D wins NE/SC/MS = wave

“Then let's get weird with NE/SC/MS in a wave.”

Addisu Demissie, Democratic strategist: 'I do politics ... Fmr CM @CoryBooker & @GavinNewsom' (X bio); 50+1 Strategies (50p1.com)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“Those two are 50-51 imo. Then we get to the IA/AK/KS cluster for 52-54. Then let's get weird with NE/SC/MS in a wave.”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-generic · BarGreat night pending

Rs vote 10-15% D and independents break hard D = blue wave

“A “blue wave” won’t come from D turnout (alone)”

Addisu Demissie, Democratic strategist: 'I do politics ... Fmr CM @CoryBooker & @GavinNewsom' (X bio); 50+1 Strategies (50p1.com)

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“A “blue wave” won’t come from D turnout (alone), but from Is breaking hard D and Rs staying home/voting 10-15% D.”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarGreat night pending

D net Senate gain 1-2 = normal wave

“a normal wave election is D+1, maybe D+2 in the senate”

Sean Trende, Sr. Elections Analyst, RealClearPolitics; Visiting Scholar, AEI; Lecturer, Ohio State (X bio). Classed nonpartisan per schema: analyst at a center-right outlet, no party or candidate work stated in bio

Oct 31, 2026 · X

“People forget that a normal wave election is D+1, maybe D+2 in the senate on this map.”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-generic/US-Senate · BarGreat night pending

D natl margin ≥ +11 and D net Senate gain ≥ 7

“a mega-tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in decades”

Sean Trende, Sr. Elections Analyst, RealClearPolitics; Visiting Scholar, AEI; Lecturer, Ohio State (X bio). Classed nonpartisan per schema: analyst at a center-right outlet, no party or candidate work stated in bio

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“doesn't necessarily entail D+11 and seven Senate seats. That would be a mega-tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen in decades.”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House/US-Senate · BarGreat night pending

D net House gain ~20 and D wins AK, NC, ME Senate only = blue wave

“they range from blue wave, to big ass blue wave, to blue tsunami”

Rachel Bitecofer, Bio: 'National political analyst/forecaster/pollster, strategist & editor of The Cycle on Substack ... This account kills fascism.' D evidence: co-founder of Strike PAC, a Democratic super PAC (background, not in bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“BW: Ds flip House with about a 20 seat net but only win 3 of the red state senate races (Alaska, NC, Maine)”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · BarGreat night pending

D also wins OH, IA, TX, KS, NE Senate = big ass blue wave

“B.A.B.W.”

Rachel Bitecofer, Bio: 'National political analyst/forecaster/pollster, strategist & editor of The Cycle on Substack ... This account kills fascism.' D evidence: co-founder of Strike PAC, a Democratic super PAC (background, not in bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“B.A.B.W. Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
GA-Gov/WI-Gov/MI-Gov/AK-Gov/OH-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

GA, WI, AK, OH Gov Tilt D; MI Gov Lean D

“Toss-up➡️Tilt Dem”

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy editor, Inside Elections (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“GA: Toss-up➡️Tilt Dem”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D net gain 12-25 (up to 240 seats)

Erin Covey (Cook Political Report; org account post), Cook Political Report org account; analysis byline Erin Covey

Oct 30, 2026 · Bluesky

“We’re now projecting Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House.”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D net gain 20-30

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy editor, Inside Elections (Bluesky bio)

Oct 30, 2026 · Bluesky

“Projected range: D+20-30 seats”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

P(D Senate) = 0.75, possibly toward 0.80

G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers; polls/forecasts @fiftyplusone.news (Bluesky bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · Bluesky

“I’m feeling pretty good about our forecast at p(Dem Senate) = 0.75. might even go up toward 80%”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

Flanagan (MN) and Pappas (NH) win; Angie Nixon (FL) and Adam Hamilton (KS) leads are mirages

“chalkier”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D seats = 242

Brian Beutler, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D seats = 235

Matt Yglesias, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D+9 'very likely'; D seats 230-245

“very likely”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D Senate seats = 53

Brian Beutler, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D Senate seats = 51

“fall a little short”

Matt Yglesias, Co-host, Politix podcast

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
state-legislatures · ForecastForecast pending

D flips both AZ chambers; regains NV trifecta; breaks through in WI; restores MN and MI trifectas; flips PA Senate (trifecta); takes ≥ 1 NH chamber

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D 239-196 (D+24)

Alan Abramowitz, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball; Professor Emeritus, Emory (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“a prediction of a Democratic gain of 24 seats in the House of Representatives, giving Democrats a 239-196 seat majority”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D 53-47 (D+6)

Alan Abramowitz, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball; Professor Emeritus, Emory (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“a Democratic gain of six seats in the Senate, giving Democrats a 53-47 seat majority in the upper chamber.”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
GA-Gov/NV-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

GA-Gov and NV-Gov Leans D

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball final ratings byline), Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“the Crystal Ball’s only two gubernatorial Toss-ups have been Georgia and Nevada, and both go to Leans Democratic.”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D seats > 235

Kyle Kondik (Crystal Ball final ratings byline), Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“Democrats appear likelier than not to finish ahead of the 235 seats they won in 2018.”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
governors: WI NV GA OH AK KS VT NH MI TX AZ FL · ForecastForecast pending

D: WI, NV, GA, OH, AK, MI, AZ governor; R: KS, VT, NH, TX, FL governor

“WI: likely Dem NV: tilt Dem GA: lean Dem OH: lean Dem”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“WI: likely Dem NV: tilt Dem GA: lean Dem OH: lean Dem AK: likely Dem KS: lean GOP VT: likely GOP NH: likely GOP”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

P(D control) = 54% (fundamentals-only model; 46% if presidential correlation stays at current levels)

Patrick Ruffini, Pollster, Echelon Insights (X bio: 'Pollster @EchelonInsights'). R evidence: Echelon Insights is the Republican polling firm he co-founded; he was RNC eCampaign director (background, not stated in bio)

Oct 28, 2026 · X

“Democrats are 54% to win the Senate on a simple fundamentals-only model”
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

Seat #50 = TX-Sen, seat #51 = ME-Sen

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“Seat #50 is Texas, and seat #51 is Maine. 5 states are clustered together between 49-52”
Check it
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Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-electorate · ForecastForecast pending

final electorate a touch left of 2018 (2018 voters D+3.3; current estimate D+3.0)

“well within range of a "normal" wave, not a tsunami”

Patrick Ruffini, Pollster, Echelon Insights (X bio: 'Pollster @EchelonInsights'). R evidence: Echelon Insights is the Republican polling firm he co-founded; he was RNC eCampaign director (background, not stated in bio)

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“I expect that will likely continue and we'll end up a touch left of 2018, well within range of a "normal" wave, not a tsunami.”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D net gain 12-25 seats (Cook ratings)

“more than enough for a majority”

Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst, Cook Political Report

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“we're projecting a Dem gain of 12-25 seats, more than enough for a majority.”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D seats = 50 at Lean D or better (47 Safe/Likely + 3 Lean)

Scott Rasmussen, President, RMG Research; founder of Rasmussen Reports (X bio: 'Founded a Couple of Well Known Brands ... President, RMG Research'); runs Scott's Scoreboard. No party role stated

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“47 Senate Seats Safe/Likely D. 3 More Lean D.”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

R net House loss ~25 (D ~240)

Erick Erickson, Conservative radio broadcaster (X bio: 'Christian broadcaster. Conservative truth-teller. Live on-air daily'; category Media Personality). R-leaning commentator, not a party strategist, so class unknown

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“GOP loses the House by 25 seats.”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-governors · ForecastForecast pending

D wins a clear majority of governorships (≥ 26 by our reading)

“in good shape to grab a clear majority of governors”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“Dems already appear to be in good shape to grab a clear majority of governors”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D Senate seats = 53 (P(D Senate) 77%)

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“P(Dem Senate) = 77% (53D-47R)”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D House seats = 239 (P(D House) 92%)

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“P(Dem House) = 92% (239D-196R)”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House/US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

outcome = big ass blue wave (middle tier of her ladder)

“BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave”

Rachel Bitecofer, Bio: 'National political analyst/forecaster/pollster, strategist & editor of The Cycle on Substack ... This account kills fascism.' D evidence: co-founder of Strike PAC, a Democratic super PAC (background, not in bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“@LarrySabato and I are BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave.”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House/US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D wins both House and Senate (more likely than not, 50+1 forecast)

“more likely than not”

G. Elliott Morris, data-driven journalist, pollster; Substack Strength In Numbers; 50+1 (per X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Democrats are more likely than not to win both the House and the Senate tomorrow, according to our forecasts at @50plus1news”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D Senate seats = 53

at least Leans D (paraphrase, not a quote)

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“SENATE: 53 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R (D+6)”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
natl-governors · ForecastForecast pending

D governorships = 28

at least Leans D (paraphrase, not a quote)

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“GOVERNORS: 28 at least Leans D, 22 at least Leans R (D+4)”
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House · ForecastForecast pending

D House seats = 239

at least Leans D (paraphrase, not a quote)

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball (X bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“HOUSE: 239 at least Leans D, 196 at least Leans R (D+24)”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.
US-House/US-Senate · ForecastForecast pending

D House ~236; Senate 52-48 D

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“U.S. House: about 236 D. U.S. Senate: 52-48 D.”
Check it
DDHQ (free)
Readable
Readable as the night goes on: national tallies build from 18:00 ET and may not settle on the night.

Timeline

Every hour from 6:00 pm to 1:00 am ET: who closes, the headline bars, and the rest under “More markers”.

6:00 pm ET

Polls close IN, KY

Key races KY-Sen IN-05 KY-06 IN-HouseChamber IN-SenateChamber IN-SoS

IN-05 · BarGreat night pending

D (J.D. Ford) wins

“it's going to be a really, really, really good night”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“Indiana's 5th of what they would say,oh boy, it's going to be a really, really, really good night.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
KY-06 · BarGreat night pending

D loses narrowly (close) → very good night still possible

“Democrats still have a very good night”

David Nir, Publisher, The Downballot (podcast intro)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“keep your mind open for the possibility that Democrats still have a very good night.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
IN-05 · BarGreat night pending

D margin close to even or D ahead

“a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. IN-05 is in Eastern time. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
2024 baseline
A swing of about 16.8 points toward D from 2024 (IN-05 was -16.8 for Harris, 2024 presidential).
More markers (10)
KY-06 · BarGreat night pending

D (Dembo) wins

“very, very good night for Democrats”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“but if Republicans are losing it,it's going to be a very, very good night for Democrats.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
KY-06 · BarGood night pending

D takes KY-06

“Republicans will be downing their bourbon”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Democrats take the open Lexington-based seat (Trump +15), Republicans will be downing their bourbon.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
KY-06 · BarGreat night pending

D margin close to even or D ahead

“a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
2024 baseline
A swing of about 15.0 points toward D from 2024 (KY-06 was -15.0 for Harris, 2024 presidential).
KY-06 · BarGood night pending

Dembo (D) competitive in early returns

“the party should be in for a good night”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If the Democratic candidate, Zach Dembo, looks competitive early in the evening here, the party should be in for a good night.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
KY-06/IN-05 · BarGreat night pending

D wins KY-6 (Dembo) or IN-5 (Ford)

“on track for a very good night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“either would put the party on track for a very good night.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET.
KY-06 · BarGood night pending

D margin ≥ -3 (R+3 or closer = on track; closer = bigger night)

on track (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. KY-06 (Lexington area) is in Eastern time. Fast: nearly all votes counted by midnight in 2024 (NYT). Eastern-time counties close 18 ET, Central 19 ET.
2024 baseline
A swing of 12.0 points toward D from 2024 (KY-06 was -15.0 for Harris, 2024 presidential).
IN-HouseChamber · BarGreat night pending

D flips ≥ 4 → breaks R supermajority (70-30 now)

break supermajority (paraphrase, not a quote)

Tom Davies, Indiana Capital Chronicle (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Democrats need to flip four seats from the current 70-30 Republican House margin to break that status”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
IN-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 33 of 100 (+3); R 67

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Democrats are favored to win 33 seats.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
IN-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 13 of 50 (+3); R 37

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Democrats are favored to win 13 seats.”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.
IN-SoS · ForecastForecast pending

Leans D (Bayh)

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Polls show Bayh with a small but consistent lead over Engling while Ballard and Shillings lag behind in the single digits”
Readable
Polls close 6:00 pm ET. Medium: most ballots counted by noon Wednesday in 2022 and 2024 (NYT). Most of state closes 18 ET, Central-time NW/SW counties 19 ET.

7:00 pm ET

Polls close FL, GA, NH, SC, VA, VT · also AL (Eastern), IN (Central), KY (Central)

Key races GA-Sen SC-Sen VA-Sen GA-Gov VT-Gov FL-14 FL-22 FL-25 FL-27 SC-01 VA-01 VA-02 VA-05 GA-AG GA-HouseChamber GA-PSC-3 GA-PSC-5 GA-SenateChamber GA-SoS

SC-Sen · BarGreat night pending

Andrews beats Graham → R Senate majority gone; close → R sweating

“Senate Republicans can say goodbye to their majority”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Sen. Darline Graham loses to Annie Andrews in the Trump +18 state, Senate Republicans can say goodbye to their majority.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).
SC-Sen · BarGood night pending

Black turnout at presidential (2024) level → Andrews has a shot

“Democrats could have a shot”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline)

Oct 30, 2026 · Web

“watch Black turnout here. If it's presidential-level high, Democrats could have a shot.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).
VA-05 · BarGreat night pending

D (Perriello) flips VA-05

“a very, very big wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) flips VA-01 “it would really be good”
  2. Great night VA-05: D (Perriello) flips VA-05 “a very, very big wave”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“So if we're talking about,I don't want to say tsunami,but let's say a very, very big wave, this one could fall.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
More markers (29)
SC-Sen · BarGreat night pending

Andrews (D) beats Graham

“would mark a historic night for Democrats”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in the South Carolina Senate race (where polls close at 7 p.m.), would mark a historic night for Democrats”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).
GA-Gov · BarGreat night pending

Bottoms beats Jackson

“would show the party exceeding them”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night GA-Sen: Ossoff solid reelection “would show the Democrats meeting expectations”
  2. Great night GA-Gov: Bottoms beats Jackson “would show the party exceeding them”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“despite the massive sums he has poured into his own campaign, would show the party exceeding them.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
VA-01 · BarGood night pending

D (Shannon Taylor) flips VA-01

“it would really be good”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) flips VA-01 “it would really be good”
  2. Great night VA-05: D (Perriello) flips VA-05 “a very, very big wave”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“Democrats don't have to win it to take the House, but it would really be good.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-01 · BarGreat night pending

D flips VA-01

“they're in for a very good night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night VA-02: Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson “should brace for impact”
  2. Great night VA-01: D flips VA-01 “they're in for a very good night”
  3. Great night VA-05: D flips VA-05 “they're in for a great night”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they're in for a very good night.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-01 · BarGreat night pending

D (Shannon Taylor) wins

“augur a larger wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night VA-02: D (Luria) wins “on track for a solid performance”
  2. Great night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) wins “augur a larger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“If Democrats also win the VA-1 congressional seat, that will augur a larger wave.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-01 · BarGood night pending

D wins

“an early sign that Democrats may be in for a good performance”

Colton Game, Digital Content Producer, WSLS 10 (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If it flips, it is an early sign that Democrats may be in for a good performance on election night.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-02 · BarGood night pending

D (Luria) flips VA-02

“the Democrats good night to kick off”

David Beard, Contributor, The Downballot (podcast intro)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“you would expect the Democrats good night to kick off with picking upa district like this.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-02 · BarGood night pending

Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson

“should brace for impact”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night VA-02: Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson “should brace for impact”
  2. Great night VA-01: D flips VA-01 “they're in for a very good night”
  3. Great night VA-05: D flips VA-05 “they're in for a great night”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If even she gets swept away in a 50-50 district, other Republicans in a low-single-digit Trump seat should brace for impact.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-02 · BarGood night pending

D (Luria) wins

“on track for a solid performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night VA-02: D (Luria) wins “on track for a solid performance”
  2. Great night VA-01: D (Shannon Taylor) wins “augur a larger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a Democratic win in the VA-2 House race will be a sign the party is on track for a solid performance.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-02 · BarFair / floor pending

D wins VA-02 (floor)

“the party will be very worried about the rest of the night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor VA-02: D wins VA-02 (floor) “the party will be very worried about the rest of the night”
  2. Great night VA-05: D wins VA-05 “a blue tsunami is on the horizon”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“if they fail to win the 2nd, the party will be very worried about the rest of the night.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-05 · BarGreat night pending

D flips VA-05

“they're in for a great night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night VA-02: Kiggans (R) loses → low-single-digit Trump-seat Rs in trouble; Kiggans holds → good sign for Collins, Hinson “should brace for impact”
  2. Great night VA-01: D flips VA-01 “they're in for a very good night”
  3. Great night VA-05: D flips VA-05 “they're in for a great night”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they're in for a great night.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
VA-05 · BarGreat night pending

D wins VA-05

“a blue tsunami is on the horizon”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor VA-02: D wins VA-02 (floor) “the party will be very worried about the rest of the night”
  2. Great night VA-05: D wins VA-05 “a blue tsunami is on the horizon”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Win the 5th, into which the Democrats have been pouring money as a longshot hope, and a blue tsunami is on the horizon.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: 95% on election night or early next morning; close races often called next day (AP called VA-02 at 5:28 pm ET the day after in 2024, per Axios).
GA-HouseChamber · BarGood night pending

D net gain ≥ 10 flips chamber

flip (paraphrase, not a quote)

Greg Bluestein, AJC politics reporter (Bluesky bio)

Oct 28, 2026 · Bluesky

“Georgia Democrats need to net 10 seats to flip the state House.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
FL-13/FL-07 · BarGreat night pending

D wins FL-13 or FL-7

“a very good night for Florida Democrats”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
  2. Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  3. Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
  4. Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
  5. Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  6. Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“or FL-7, a Republican open seat, would also mark a very good night for Florida Democrats.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
FL-14/FL-09 · BarGreat night pending

Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9

“an even stronger current”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
  2. Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  3. Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
  4. Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
  5. Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  6. Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“reelection for Rep. Kathy Castor in FL-14 would measure an even stronger current, as would a win for Rep. Darren Soto in FL-9”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Tampa area, Eastern time; county results from ~19 ET (NPR: most FL House results in the 19 ET hour). Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
FL-25 · BarWarning sign pending

Moskowitz race close or uncalled early → R House hopes alive

“House Republicans can keep hope alive”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz's race is close — or too close to call early in the night — House Republicans can keep hope alive.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
FL-25 · BarGood night pending

Moskowitz (D) wins

“a positive trend for Democrats”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
  2. Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  3. Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
  4. Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
  5. Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  6. Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“A win for Rep. Jared Moskowitz in FL-25 would show a positive trend for Democrats”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
FL-27 · BarGreat night pending

D ousts Salazar

“The storm will reach historic proportions”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
  2. Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  3. Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
  4. Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
  5. Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  6. Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The storm will reach historic proportions if Democrats oust veteran GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar in heavily Hispanic FL-27”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Miami-Dade, Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
GA-PSC · BarGood night pending

D flips GA Public Service Commission

“other major things Dems could flip in a good night”

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“It's not just Congress—other major things Dems could flip in a good night: —Georgia's utility commission”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
GA-Sen · BarGood night pending

Ossoff solid reelection

“would show the Democrats meeting expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night GA-Sen: Ossoff solid reelection “would show the Democrats meeting expectations”
  2. Great night GA-Gov: Bottoms beats Jackson “would show the party exceeding them”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“who has led Republican Mike Collins in polls for the Georgia Senate race all fall, would show the Democrats meeting expectations.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
GA-PSC · BarGood night pending

D wins PSC seat(s) on ballot → flips commission

flip (paraphrase, not a quote)

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 31, 2026 · Bluesky

“They need to win again this year to flip the commission (it need not be by 25 points, one vote would suffice).”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
county:Miami-Dade FL · BarGood night pending

Miami-Dade Latino House seats swing toward D in line with national polls

the polls were right (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night county:Miami-Dade FL: Miami-Dade Latino House seats swing toward D in line with national polls the polls were right
  2. Good night FL-statewide: FL D swing vs 2024 ~ 7 pts → national ~ D+9 (add a couple of points) hunch

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
SC-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

Annie Andrews (D) wins

long-shot surprise (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast SC-Sen: Annie Andrews (D) wins long-shot surprise
  2. Forecast SC-01: Nancy Lacore (D) wins Southern long shot

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).
GA-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

Bottoms 50.3%, 54%

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Keisha Lance Bottoms is projected to get 50.3% of the vote and has a 54% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
GA-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 87 of 180 (+6); R 93

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Georgia Republicans are moderate favorites to win a majority in the State House.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
FL-22 · ForecastForecast pending

Dandiya (D) wins FL-22

“I'd probably take a heavy "over" on Democrats in FL-22”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“I'd probably take a heavy "over" on Democrats in FL-22 (Dandiya wins)”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Eastern time. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
GA-AG/GA-SoS · ForecastForecast pending

GA-AG and GA-SoS Toss-up

Toss-up (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Georgia: From Leans Republican to Toss-up.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET.
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
GA-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 24 of 56 (+1); R 32

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Georgia Republicans are strong favorites to win a majority in the State Senate.”
Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: counties must report within an hour of close; early votes report first but Atlanta-area counties are slow, so an early R lead tends to narrow (VoteHub). Runoff Dec 1 if no one tops 50% (GA SOS calendar).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean R; expect D gains later.
SC-01 · ForecastForecast pending

Nancy Lacore (D) wins

Southern long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast SC-Sen: Annie Andrews (D) wins long-shot surprise
  2. Forecast SC-01: Nancy Lacore (D) wins Southern long shot

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 7:00 pm ET. Fast: most votes counted by midnight; an extremely close race could take over a week (The Times).

7:30 pm ET

Polls close NC, OH, WV

Key races NC-Sen OH-Sen WV-Sen OH-Gov NC-01 NC-11 OH-07

NC-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

Cooper (D) wins NC-Sen (else majority much less likely)

“much less likely”

Maham Javaid & Saige Miller, NPR (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“the path to a Democratic majority becomes much less likely if the party loses this one.”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% just after midnight in 2024. ~3/4 voted early in person (reported first); EDay leans R (The Times).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
OH-Sen/OH-Gov · BarGreat night pending

Brown and/or Acton win

“would mark bigger breakthroughs”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night OH-01/OH-09/OH-07: Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7 “would show the party on a solid path”
  2. Great night OH-Sen/OH-Gov: Brown and/or Acton win “would mark bigger breakthroughs”
  3. Great night OH-10/OH-15: D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15) “More surprising”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Wins for Democrats in the key statewide races would mark bigger breakthroughs.”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.
OH-Sen/OH-Gov · BarFair / floor pending

Acton and Brown (D) close in Portage County (not quantified)

“would need to be fairly close in all likelihood”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 28, 2026 · X

“I don’t know if Portage is “must-win” for Ds now but they would need to be fairly close in all likelihood”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.
More markers (7)
NC-01 · BarGood night pending

Davis (D) survives

“signs of a good Democratic performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night NC-01: Davis (D) survives “signs of a good Democratic performance”
  2. Great night NC-03/NC-09: D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson) “historic breakthroughs for the party”
  3. Great night NC-11: D (Ager) flips NC-11 “As impressive”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Other signs of a good Democratic performance will come if Rep. Donald Davis survives in the NC-1 seat”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% just after midnight in 2024. ~3/4 voted early in person (reported first); EDay leans R (The Times).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
NC-03/NC-09 · BarGreat night pending

D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson)

“historic breakthroughs for the party”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night NC-01: Davis (D) survives “signs of a good Democratic performance”
  2. Great night NC-03/NC-09: D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson) “historic breakthroughs for the party”
  3. Great night NC-11: D (Ager) flips NC-11 “As impressive”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“or the NC-9 seat now held by Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee — that would signal historic breakthroughs for the party.”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
NC-11 · BarGreat night pending

D (Ager) flips NC-11

“As impressive”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night NC-01: Davis (D) survives “signs of a good Democratic performance”
  2. Great night NC-03/NC-09: D wins NC-3 (Murphy) or NC-9 (Hudson) “historic breakthroughs for the party”
  3. Great night NC-11: D (Ager) flips NC-11 “As impressive”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“As impressive will be if moderate Democrat Jamie Ager flips NC-11”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% just after midnight in 2024. ~3/4 voted early in person (reported first); EDay leans R (The Times).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
OH-01/OH-09/OH-07 · BarGood night pending

Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7

“would show the party on a solid path”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night OH-01/OH-09/OH-07: Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7 “would show the party on a solid path”
  2. Great night OH-Sen/OH-Gov: Brown and/or Acton win “would mark bigger breakthroughs”
  3. Great night OH-10/OH-15: D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15) “More surprising”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“reelection victories for Democratic incumbents Greg Landsman in OH-1 and especially Marcy Kaptur in OH-9 would show the party on a solid path.”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET. Fast: 95% by midnight; absentee ballots now due by close. Early/absentee first (blue start), then rural EDay (red), then late Columbus/Cleveland EDay (VoteHub).
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.
OH-10/OH-15 · BarGreat night pending

D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15)

“More surprising”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night OH-01/OH-09/OH-07: Landsman and Kaptur (D) reelected; Poindexter (D) wins OH-7 “would show the party on a solid path”
  2. Great night OH-Sen/OH-Gov: Brown and/or Acton win “would mark bigger breakthroughs”
  3. Great night OH-10/OH-15: D beats Turner (OH-10) or Carey (OH-15) “More surprising”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“More surprising would be Democratic upsets in either the OH-10 or OH-15 districts now held by GOP Reps. Mike Turner and Mike Carey, respectively.”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and absentee. The early count leans D. Later votes: mixed: rural EDay R, then late Columbus and Cleveland EDay D, then provisionals.
NC-legislature · ForecastForecast pending

D flips one NC legislative chamber

outside chance (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
NC-legislature · ForecastForecast pending

NC House D narrow favorites (59-61 favored seats); NC Senate R solid favorites (23-27)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“North Carolina Democrats are narrow favorites to win a majority in the State House.”
Readable
Polls close 7:30 pm ET.
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.

8:00 pm ET

Polls close AL, CT, DC, DE, IL, KS, MA, MD, ME, MI, MO, MS, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN, TX, AR at 8:30 pm · also FL (Central), NH (late-closing towns), SD (Central)

Arkansas closes at 8:30 pm ET; its markers sit in this hour.

Key races AL-Sen AR-Sen DE-Sen FL-Sen IL-Sen KS-Sen MA-Sen ME-Sen MI-Sen MS-Sen NH-Sen NJ-Sen OK-Sen RI-Sen SD-Sen TN-Sen TX-Sen AL-Gov AR-Gov FL-Gov KS-Gov MA-Gov ME-Gov MI-Gov NH-Gov PA-Gov TN-Gov TX-Gov ME-02 MI-04 MI-07 NJ-07 PA-01 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-15 TX-23 TX-28 TX-34 TX-35 MI-AG MI-HouseChamber MI-SenateChamber MI-SoS PA-HouseChamber PA-SenateChamber TX-RRC

MI-Sen · BarNecessary condition pending

El-Sayed (D) margin in Oakland County ≥ +12 (Slotkin 2024)

“An el-Sayed underperformance there wipes out the gains in those Wayne cities”

Steve Kornacki, Chief Data Analyst, NBC News (X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“The key place to watch is Oakland County, second largest in the state, which Slotkin won by 12 over Rogers in '24.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
2024 baseline
A swing of 1.4 points toward D from 2024 (Oakland County was +10.6 for Harris, 2024 presidential).
MI-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

El-Sayed share in Wayne County ≥ 68% (unless suburbs overperform)

“needed 68% or more”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
TX-Sen · BarGood night pending

Bell County (TX) goes D if Talarico wins

“a candidate to go blue if Talarico wins”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“Bell seems like a candidate to go blue if Talarico wins, too”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
More markers (53)
MI-Sen · BarGreat night pending

El-Sayed wins

“too strong for Republicans to overcome”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor MI-Gov: Benson wins comfortably “the baseline for a good Democratic night”
  2. Good night MI-04/MI-07: D flips MI-4 and MI-7 “staying on track for a good night”
  3. Great night MI-Sen: El-Sayed wins “too strong for Republicans to overcome”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“But if El-Sayed survives this firestorm, even amid conspicuous defections by some Jewish Democrats, it will be another indication the Trump undertow”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
ME-Sen · BarGreat night pending

D (Jackson) beats Collins

“Democrats are exceeding expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night ME-Gov: D (Pingree) wins comfortably “meeting its marks for a solid night”
  2. Great night ME-Sen: D (Jackson) beats Collins “Democrats are exceeding expectations”
  3. Great night ME-02: D (Dunlap) holds ME-02 “signal an even better night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“If Jackson wins, it will be another sign that Democrats are exceeding expectations”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution
Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
TX-Gov · BarGreat night pending

Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott

“an even more historic breakthrough”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
  2. Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
  3. Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
  4. Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
  5. Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democrat Gina Hinojosa beats Republican Greg Abbott in the Texas governor race, despite his massive spending advantage, that would represent an even more historic breakthrough”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
MI-Gov · BarFair / floor pending

Benson wins comfortably

“the baseline for a good Democratic night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor MI-Gov: Benson wins comfortably “the baseline for a good Democratic night”
  2. Good night MI-04/MI-07: D flips MI-4 and MI-7 “staying on track for a good night”
  3. Great night MI-Sen: El-Sayed wins “too strong for Republicans to overcome”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a comfortable win for Democrat Jocelyn Benson in the Michigan governor race is the baseline for a good Democratic night.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
MS-Sen · BarGreat night pending

Colom (D) beats Hyde-Smith

“would be even more remarkable”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“A victory for Democrat Scott Colom over Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi Senate race would be even more remarkable”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast-ish: 84% by midnight in 2024 (NYT).
TX-15/TX-23/TX-34/TX-35 · BarNecessary condition pending

D wins ≥ 3 of TX-15, TX-23, TX-34, TX-35

“sweep up most of them”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If the Democrats can sweep up most of them, it could indicate a reaction against Trump’s immigration crackdown”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-15/TX-35 · BarNecessary condition pending

Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35

“Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
  2. Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
  3. Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
  4. Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
  5. Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“and/or sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia holds TX-35 (an open seat Trump carried by almost 11 points), it would show Democrats overperforming among Hispanics.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarWarning sign pending

Paxton holds → R still has Senate path

“Republicans still have a path to keeping their Senate majority”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds on, Republicans still have a path to keeping their Senate majority.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

Talarico combined margin ≥ 0

“break even in the combined tally”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico combined margin ≥ 0 “break even in the combined tally”
  2. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico margin in Tarrant ≥ ~9 (just shy of double digits) “will probably have to go Talarico’s way”
  3. Good night TX-Sen: Austin MSA share > 10% victory

Spencer Lieb, Center for Politics intern, writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball (editors' note)

Oct 31, 2026 · Substack

“Talarico will probably have to break even in the combined tally here to win statewide.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
2024 baseline
A swing of 13.8 points toward D from 2024 (Collin + Denton + Rockwall combined was -13.8 for Harris, 2024 presidential).
TX-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

Talarico margin in Tarrant ≥ ~9 (just shy of double digits)

“will probably have to go Talarico’s way”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico combined margin ≥ 0 “break even in the combined tally”
  2. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico margin in Tarrant ≥ ~9 (just shy of double digits) “will probably have to go Talarico’s way”
  3. Good night TX-Sen: Austin MSA share > 10% victory

Spencer Lieb, Center for Politics intern, writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball (editors' note)

Oct 31, 2026 · Substack

“This leftward trend suggests that Tarrant will probably have to go Talarico’s way by just shy of double digits.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
2024 baseline
A swing of about 14.1 points toward D from 2024 (Tarrant County was -5.1 for Harris, 2024 presidential).
TX-Sen · BarGreat night pending

Talarico wins

“progressing toward a very good night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
  2. Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
  3. Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
  4. Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
  5. Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“despite massive Republican super PAC spending funded by Elon Musk and others, would show Democrats progressing toward a very good night”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarGood night pending

Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%

“As a bonus”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
  2. Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
  3. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
  4. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“As a bonus, watch the fast-growing and heavily populated Dallas suburbs – Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%

“would need to improve on”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
  2. Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
  3. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
  4. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Talarico would need to improve on O'Rourke's totals in these Latino-heavy counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarGood night pending

Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26%

“that's how he wins the seat”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
  2. Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
  3. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
  4. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“If Talarico is north of both of those, that's how he wins the seat.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

Talarico (D) carries Collin AND Denton counties

“almost certainly needs to flip”

Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst, Cook Political Report

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“But the two counties Talarico almost certainly needs to flip that O'Rourke didn't: Collin and Denton.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

Talarico (D) carries Collin AND Denton counties

“needs to flip”

Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst, Cook Political Report

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“The two R counties Talarico needs to flip: Collin & Denton, home to another 8% of TX's voters.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarNecessary condition pending

Talarico early-returns lead ≤ 4 = Paxton favored (expected lead ~7)

“a lead of 4 or less favors Paxton”

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Election night: Talarico likely leads early returns by about 7; a lead of 4 or less favors Paxton.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarGood night pending

Austin MSA share > 10%

victory (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico combined margin ≥ 0 “break even in the combined tally”
  2. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico margin in Tarrant ≥ ~9 (just shy of double digits) “will probably have to go Talarico’s way”
  3. Good night TX-Sen: Austin MSA share > 10% victory

Spencer Lieb, Center for Politics intern, writing for Sabato's Crystal Ball (editors' note)

Oct 31, 2026 · Substack

“a statewide Democratic victory likely means Austin is casting over 10% of votes statewide.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarNecessary condition pending

Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor TX-Sen: Talarico share > Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51% “would need to improve on”
  2. Necessary condition TX-Sen: Abbott votes - Paxton votes > 400,000 Necessary condition
  3. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico share > Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51% “As a bonus”
  4. Good night TX-Sen: Talarico Latino share > 64% AND Latino share of electorate > 26% “that's how he wins the seat”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline; title not shown on page)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen · BarNecessary condition pending

no-primary voters even = Talarico +1; lean D by 5 = +3; by 8 = +4

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Split evenly: Talarico +1. Lean D by 5: Talarico +3. By 8: Talarico +4.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
FL-Gov · BarGreat night pending

Jolly (D) beats Donalds

“a very good night for Florida Democrats”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
  2. Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  3. Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
  4. Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
  5. Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  6. Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“So would a victory by Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican, over Byron Donalds in the Florida governor race.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
FL-Sen · BarGreat night pending

Nixon (D) beats Moody

“the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night FL-25: Moskowitz (D) wins “a positive trend for Democrats”
  2. Great night FL-13/FL-07: D wins FL-13 or FL-7 “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  3. Great night FL-14/FL-09: Castor (D) holds FL-14; Soto (D) holds FL-9 “an even stronger current”
  4. Great night FL-27: D ousts Salazar “The storm will reach historic proportions”
  5. Great night FL-Gov: Jolly (D) beats Donalds “a very good night for Florida Democrats”
  6. Great night FL-Sen: Nixon (D) beats Moody “the gale will reach Category 5 levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“the gale will reach Category 5 levels if progressive Democrat Angie Nixon beats Republican Ashley Moody in the Florida Senate race.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
ME-02 · BarGreat night pending

D (Dunlap) holds ME-02

“signal an even better night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night ME-Gov: D (Pingree) wins comfortably “meeting its marks for a solid night”
  2. Great night ME-Sen: D (Jackson) beats Collins “Democrats are exceeding expectations”
  3. Great night ME-02: D (Dunlap) holds ME-02 “signal an even better night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Matthew Dunlap beats former GOP Gov. Paul LePage to hold the heavily blue-collar and rural ME-2 Congressional District, that will signal an even better night”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution
Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
ME-Gov · BarGood night pending

D (Pingree) wins comfortably

“meeting its marks for a solid night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night ME-Gov: D (Pingree) wins comfortably “meeting its marks for a solid night”
  2. Great night ME-Sen: D (Jackson) beats Collins “Democrats are exceeding expectations”
  3. Great night ME-02: D (Dunlap) holds ME-02 “signal an even better night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a comfortable victory for Democrat Hannah Pingree in the Maine governor race will be a sign that the party is meeting its marks”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution
Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
MI-04/MI-07 · BarGood night pending

D flips MI-4 and MI-7

“staying on track for a good night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor MI-Gov: Benson wins comfortably “the baseline for a good Democratic night”
  2. Good night MI-04/MI-07: D flips MI-4 and MI-7 “staying on track for a good night”
  3. Great night MI-Sen: El-Sayed wins “too strong for Republicans to overcome”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Flipping Republican-held House seats in MI-4 and MI-7 would also show Democrats staying on track for a good night”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
NJ-07 · BarGood night pending

D (Bennett) beats Kean

“on track for a good night”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in the NJ-7 House race, another well-educated district Trump won narrowly, would show the party on track for a good night.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
PA-01 · BarGreat night pending

D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick

“another sign of a historic wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night PA-07/PA-10: D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10) “on track for a solid performance”
  2. Great night PA-01: D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick “another sign of a historic wave”
  3. Great night PA-08: D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan “Republicans will grow even more nervous”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“If Democrat Bob Harvie beats Fitzpatrick, that will be another sign of a historic wave”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).
PA-07/PA-10 · BarGood night pending

D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10)

“on track for a solid performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night PA-07/PA-10: D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10) “on track for a solid performance”
  2. Great night PA-01: D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick “another sign of a historic wave”
  3. Great night PA-08: D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan “Republicans will grow even more nervous”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democrats will be on track for a solid performance if they beat Republican incumbents in Ryan Mackenzie in PA-7 and Scott Perry in PA-10”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
PA-08 · BarGreat night pending

D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan

“Republicans will grow even more nervous”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night PA-07/PA-10: D beats Mackenzie (PA-7) and Perry (PA-10) “on track for a solid performance”
  2. Great night PA-01: D (Harvie) beats Fitzpatrick “another sign of a historic wave”
  3. Great night PA-08: D (Cognetti) beats Bresnahan “Republicans will grow even more nervous”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Republicans will grow even more nervous if Democrat Paige Cognetti ousts first-term GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan in PA-8”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).
TX-23 · BarGreat night pending

D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera

“a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
  2. Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
  3. Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
  4. Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
  5. Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“upset win for Democrat Katy Padilla Stout over bomb-throwing Republican Brandon Herrera in the open TX-23 seat would capture a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. If TX-23 includes Mountain-time El Paso County precincts, last polls close 21 ET (CNN lists TX-23 at 21); 2025-map county list not checked. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-28/TX-34 · BarGood night pending

Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected

“would show the party meeting expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Necessary condition TX-15/TX-35: Pulido (D) wins TX-15 and/or Garcia (D) wins TX-35 “Democrats overperforming among Hispanics”
  2. Good night TX-28/TX-34: Cuellar and Gonzalez (D) reelected “would show the party meeting expectations”
  3. Great night TX-Gov: Hinojosa (D) beats Abbott “an even more historic breakthrough”
  4. Great night TX-Sen: Talarico wins “progressing toward a very good night”
  5. Great night TX-23: D (Padilla Stout) beats Herrera “a Democratic tide reaching tsunami levels”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in South Texas seats Republicans redistricted to undercut the incumbents would show the party meeting expectations”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
FL-statewide · BarGood night pending

FL D swing vs 2024 ~ 7 pts → national ~ D+9 (add a couple of points)

hunch (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night county:Miami-Dade FL: Miami-Dade Latino House seats swing toward D in line with national polls the polls were right
  2. Good night FL-statewide: FL D swing vs 2024 ~ 7 pts → national ~ D+9 (add a couple of points) hunch

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
MI-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

D wins

Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring; Politix co-host (identity per handle)

Oct 31, 2026 · Bluesky

“I think Dems can probably pull out a win in Michigan.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
TX-RRC · ForecastForecast pending

toss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R)

“Railroad Commission, toss-up.”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast TX-RRC: toss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R) “Railroad Commission, toss-up.”
  2. Forecast TX-Sen/TX-Gov/TX-LtGov/TX-AG/TX-Comptroller: TX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5 Forecast

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Railroad Commission, toss-up.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
ME-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

Collins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D)

plausible surprise (not rooted for) (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast ME-Sen: Collins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D) plausible surprise (not rooted for)
  2. Forecast ME-02: Matt Dunlap (D) wins now expected to win

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution
Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
MS-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

Scott Colom (D) has a real chance vs Cindy Hyde-Smith

“a fighter's chance”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast-ish: 84% by midnight in 2024 (NYT).
TX-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

Talarico (D) wins (model: Likely D)

“Talarico at Likely D”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · X

“P(D Senate) at 77% now. Talarico at Likely D.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Fast: 80-90% by midnight, 99% before 7 am (NYT). Early vote reports first and leans D this year; rural EDay votes narrow it; Dallas/Harris EDay late (VoteHub). El Paso/Hudspeth close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen/OH-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

TX-Sen and OH-Sen Tilt D

“Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Dem”

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy editor, Inside Elections (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“TX-SEN: Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Dem”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
MI-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

Benson 54.3%, 94%

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Jocelyn Benson is projected to get 54.3% of the vote and has a 94% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
TX-15/TX-35 · ForecastForecast pending

D wins TX-15 (Bobby Pulido) and TX-35 (Johnny Garcia)

might (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
FL-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

Nixon (D) loses FL-Sen

“very likely losing”

G. Elliott Morris, data-driven journalist, pollster; Substack Strength In Numbers; 50+1 (per X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“Nixon is very likely losing the Florida Senate race.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Very fast: ~99% by midnight in recent generals. Most of FL closes 19 ET but statewide results post from 20 ET (DOS) and AP will not call statewide races before 20 ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans R.
PA-08 · ForecastForecast pending

Paige Cognetti (D) wins

“will probably win”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast PA-07: Bob Brooks (D) wins long shot
  2. Forecast PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D) wins “will probably win”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).
KS-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

Adam Hamilton (D) beats Roger Marshall (R)

surprise (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Mostly EDay vote; 87% by midnight (2024). NYT says mail ballots postmarked by Election Day have 3 days to arrive; KS SOS says SB 4 (eff. 2026-01-01) requires advance ballots by poll close. CONFLICT, state source preferred. Western (Mountain) counties close 21 ET.
Caution
Counted first: mostly Election Day vote.
ME-02 · ForecastForecast pending

Matt Dunlap (D) wins

now expected to win (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast ME-Sen: Collins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D) plausible surprise (not rooted for)
  2. Forecast ME-02: Matt Dunlap (D) wins now expected to win

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: ~1.5 days to 95% (2024). RCV applies to US Senate and ME-02: only first choices on the night; RCV tabulation days later if no majority (ME-02 RCV result took 10 days in 2024).
Caution
Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
MI-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 62 of 110 (+10)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Michigan Democrats are strong favorites to win a majority in the State House.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
MI-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 23 of 38 (+3)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Michigan Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win a majority in the State Senate.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Slow: about half counted by midnight (2022, 2024), ~95% by 6 am Wed. Big counties (Wayne, Oakland, Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw) release little early; Detroit absentees late. AP will not call statewide races before 21 ET (UP Central-time counties). Automatic recount at <=0.1%.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
MI-SoS/MI-AG · ForecastForecast pending

MI-SoS Leans D; MI-AG Toss-up

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Michigan: From Toss-up to Leans Democratic”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: mix of mail, early in-person and EDay; big counties release little early. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
NH-trifecta · ForecastForecast pending

Ayotte (R) 96%; D favored in 252 of 400 House (+73); Senate 12-12

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Kelly Ayotte is projected to get 54.0% of the vote and has a 96% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: eDay.
PA-07 · ForecastForecast pending

Bob Brooks (D) wins

long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast PA-07: Bob Brooks (D) wins long shot
  2. Forecast PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D) wins “will probably win”

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).
PA-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

Shapiro 61.1%, >99%

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Josh Shapiro is projected to get 61.1% of the vote and has a >99% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).
PA-HouseChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 112 of 203 (+9)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Pennsylvania Democrats are overwhelming favorites to win a majority in the State House.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).
PA-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D favored in 26 of 50 (+3)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Pennsylvania Democrats are moderate favorites to win a majority in the State Senate.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET. Medium: 97% by noon the next day in the past two cycles (NYT).
TX-09/TX-23/TX-32/TX-15/TX-28/TX-34/TX-35 · ForecastForecast pending

R wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast TX-09/TX-23/TX-32/TX-15/TX-28/TX-34/TX-35: R wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35 Forecast
  2. Forecast TX-HouseChamber/TX-SenateChamber: TX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D) Forecast

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Redrawn congressional seats: R win TX-9, 23, 32; D win TX-15, 28, 34, 35.”
Readable
Polls close 8:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.

9:00 pm ET

Polls close AZ, CO, IA, LA, MN, NE, NM, NY, WI, WY · also KS (Mountain), MI (Central), SD (Mountain), TX (Mountain)

Key races CO-Sen IA-Sen LA-Sen MN-Sen NE-Sen NM-Sen WY-Sen AZ-Gov IA-Gov WI-Gov AZ-01 AZ-02 AZ-06 CO-05 CO-08 IA-01 IA-03 NY-17 NY-21 WI-03 AZ-HouseChamber AZ-SenateChamber WI-AssemblyChamber WI-SenateChamber

MI-Sen/NH-Sen/MN-Sen · BarWarning sign pending

R flips any of MI, NH, MN → D path seriously harder

“seriously complicates Democrats' math”

Domenico Montanaro, NPR (byline)

Oct 30, 2026 · Web

“Winning even one of those seriously complicates Democrats' math.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
MN-Sen · BarFair / floor pending

Flanagan (D) wins MN-Sen (and El-Sayed wins MI-Sen)

“perhaps fatally set back Democrat chances”

Max Kendix, The Times (London), byline 'Max Kendix, Washington'

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Just like in Michigan, a Republican win here would perhaps fatally set back Democrat chances of taking the Senate.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: 56% by midnight in 2024, complete by noon Wed (NYT).
WI-AssemblyChamber/WI-SenateChamber · BarGood night pending

D flips WI legislature

“On a good night, should flip”

Jeff Singer, Managing editor, The Downballot (episode description)

Oct 29, 2026 · Podcast

“So this feels like one that On a good night, should flip.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
More markers (29)
AZ-Gov/AZ-01 · BarFair / floor pending

Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1

“the minimum for a good Democratic night”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor AZ-Gov/AZ-01: Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1 “the minimum for a good Democratic night”
  2. Great night AZ-06: D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani “More impressive”
  3. Great night AZ-02/NV-02: D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2 “would mark an historic tide”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a comfortable reelection for Democrat Katie Hobbs over hard-line Republican Andy Biggs, now seems the minimum for a good Democratic night.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
WI-01/WI-Gov · BarGreat night pending

Berman (D) beats Steil; Crowley wins governor

“would signal something more”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night WI-03: Cooke (D) beats Van Orden “would mark a good night for the party”
  2. Great night WI-01/WI-Gov: Berman (D) beats Steil; Crowley wins governor “would signal something more”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“and for Democrat David Crowley in the open seat Wisconsin governor race, would signal something more.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: 95% by 5 am in 2024. Milwaukee central-count absentees report last and typically move the statewide margin ~2 pts toward D (VoteHub).
Caution
Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
AZ-06 · BarGreat night pending

D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani

“More impressive”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor AZ-Gov/AZ-01: Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1 “the minimum for a good Democratic night”
  2. Great night AZ-06: D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani “More impressive”
  3. Great night AZ-02/NV-02: D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2 “would mark an historic tide”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“More impressive will be if Democratic Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza defeats Rep. Juan Ciscomani”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
AZ-statewide · BarGood night pending

D wins remaining GOP-held AZ statewide offices

“other major things Dems could flip in a good night”

Daniel Nichanian, Editor in chief, Bolts (Bluesky bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“—the remaining statewide offices in Arizona”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
CO-03/CO-04 · BarGreat night pending

D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4)

“the flood will be mountain-high”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night CO-08: D (Rutinel) beats Evans “track with a good Democratic performance”
  2. Great night CO-03/CO-04: D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4) “the flood will be mountain-high”
  3. Great night CO-05: D (Killin) beats Crank “would mark a very good night for the party”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Lauren Boebert in CO-4, a seat Trump won by more than 18 points, the flood will be mountain-high.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: mail ballots.
CO-05 · BarGreat night pending

D (Killin) beats Crank

“would mark a very good night for the party”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night CO-08: D (Rutinel) beats Evans “track with a good Democratic performance”
  2. Great night CO-03/CO-04: D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4) “the flood will be mountain-high”
  3. Great night CO-05: D (Killin) beats Crank “would mark a very good night for the party”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in CO-5, a district Trump won by nine points, would mark a very good night for the party.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow-ish: all-mail; about 4 days to reach 95% (NYT).
Caution
Counted first: mail ballots.
CO-08 · BarGood night pending

D (Rutinel) beats Evans

“track with a good Democratic performance”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night CO-08: D (Rutinel) beats Evans “track with a good Democratic performance”
  2. Great night CO-03/CO-04: D ousts Hurd (CO-3) or Boebert (CO-4) “the flood will be mountain-high”
  3. Great night CO-05: D (Killin) beats Crank “would mark a very good night for the party”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in a district north of Denver that Trump carried by less than two points, would track with a good Democratic performance.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow-ish: all-mail; about 4 days to reach 95% (NYT).
Caution
Counted first: mail ballots.
IA-01/IA-03/IA-Gov · BarGood night pending

D beats Miller-Meeks and Nunn; Sand wins governor

“would show the party meeting expectations”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night IA-01/IA-03/IA-Gov: D beats Miller-Meeks and Nunn; Sand wins governor “would show the party meeting expectations”
  2. Great night IA-02/IA-Sen: D wins open IA-2 or Turek wins Senate “would mark a bigger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“seats Trump won by eight and four points respectively, would show the party meeting expectations.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
IA-02/IA-Sen · BarGreat night pending

D wins open IA-2 or Turek wins Senate

“would mark a bigger wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night IA-01/IA-03/IA-Gov: D beats Miller-Meeks and Nunn; Sand wins governor “would show the party meeting expectations”
  2. Great night IA-02/IA-Sen: D wins open IA-2 or Turek wins Senate “would mark a bigger wave”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“the more reliably Republican seat being vacated by Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, would mark a bigger wave.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Fast: 90% by midnight, 99% by noon Wed (2024). Early/mail ballots report first and lean D (The Times).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
IA-Sen · BarWarning sign pending

Hinson looking good → night not as bad for R

“the night might not be as bad as many Republicans feared”

Hans Nichols, Axios (byline)

Oct 31, 2026 · Web

“If Hinson is looking good, the night might not be as bad as many Republicans feared.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Fast: 90% by midnight, 99% by noon Wed (2024). Early/mail ballots report first and lean D (The Times).
Caution
Early votes report first here and lean D; expect R gains later.
KS-Sen/NE-Sen/SD-Sen · BarGreat night pending

D/independent wins in KS, NE or SD

“squarely into tsunami territory”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democratic wins in any of those races would propel the night squarely into tsunami territory.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
NY-17 · BarGreat night pending

D (Conley) beats Lawler

“signal a stronger wave”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Great night NY-17: D (Conley) beats Lawler “signal a stronger wave”
  2. Great night NY-21: D (Gendebien) flips NY-21 “the wave will be reaching historic heights”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“in NY-17, yet another white-collar seat Trump narrowly carried, it would signal a stronger wave.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: most votes by noon Wed; mail ballots have a week to arrive (NYT).
NY-21 · BarGreat night pending

D (Gendebien) flips NY-21

“the wave will be reaching historic heights”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Great night NY-17: D (Conley) beats Lawler “signal a stronger wave”
  2. Great night NY-21: D (Gendebien) flips NY-21 “the wave will be reaching historic heights”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“flips NY-21, the preponderantly working-class White upstate New York seat being vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik, the wave will be reaching historic heights.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: most votes by noon Wed; mail ballots have a week to arrive (NYT).
TX-Gov/FL-Gov/US-House · BarGreat night pending

D wins TX-Gov and FL-Gov, Trump+10 seats flip, House gain ~30 (later '40+ house seats') = blue tsunami

“Tsunami: all of the above and the crazy shit”

Rachel Bitecofer, Bio: 'National political analyst/forecaster/pollster, strategist & editor of The Cycle on Substack ... This account kills fascism.' D evidence: co-founder of Strike PAC, a Democratic super PAC (background, not in bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“the crazy shit like Tx Gov, Fl gov, and Trump +10 points or more flipping everywhere and House gains closer to 30”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
WI-03 · BarGood night pending

Cooke (D) beats Van Orden

“would mark a good night for the party”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night WI-03: Cooke (D) beats Van Orden “would mark a good night for the party”
  2. Great night WI-01/WI-Gov: Berman (D) beats Steil; Crowley wins governor “would signal something more”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“A win for Democrat Rebecca Cooke over Republican Derrick Van Orden in the WI-3 House race would mark a good night for the party”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Medium: 95% by 5 am in 2024. Milwaukee central-count absentees report last and typically move the statewide margin ~2 pts toward D (VoteHub).
Caution
Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
SC-Sen/LA-Sen/MS-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

R holds the SC, LA and MS Senate seats

“I doubt Rs actually lose any of these Senate seats”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“I doubt Rs actually lose any of these Senate seats (SC, LA, MS) but the margins will be interesting”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
AZ-02 · ForecastForecast pending

Crane (R) holds AZ-02

“the under on AZ-02 (Crane wins)”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 29, 2026 · X

“and the under on AZ-02 (Crane wins). Whatever; let's see!”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
AZ-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

Hobbs (D) wins (Crystal Ball: Likely D)

“it should be a shock if Katie Hobbs lost”

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics (X bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · X

“maybe the margin won’t be this big but it should be a shock if Katie Hobbs lost”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
AZ-02 · ForecastForecast pending

Jonathan Nez (D) wins

long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; full unofficial count takes days (NYT). First results ~10 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
AZ-Gov/AZ-legislature · ForecastForecast pending

Hobbs wins; D probably flips legislature (AZ trifecta)

Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring; Politix co-host (Bluesky bio empty; identity per handle, 86K followers, links slowboring.com posts)

Oct 29, 2026 · Bluesky

“Katie Hobbs is gonna get reelected and probably flip the legislature”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
AZ-trifecta · ForecastForecast pending

Hobbs 93%; D favored in 34 of 60 House (+7) and 17 of 30 Senate (+4)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Katie Hobbs is projected to get 49.2% of the vote and has a 93% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
WI-trifecta · ForecastForecast pending

Crowley 75%; D favored in 52 of 99 Assembly (+7) and 18 of 33 Senate (+3)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“David Crowley is projected to get 51.7% of the vote and has a 75% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.
AZ-AG/AZ-SoS · ForecastForecast pending

AZ-AG Leans D (Mayes); AZ-SoS Likely D (Fontes)

Leans/Likely Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Arizona: Kris Mayes, D”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail ballots received before Election Day.
MN-AG/MN-SoS · ForecastForecast pending

MN-AG Toss-up (Ellison); MN-SoS Leans D (Simon)

Toss-up / Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Minnesota: From Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
MN-trifecta · ForecastForecast pending

Klobuchar 99%; D favored in 80 of 134 House (+13) and 42 of 67 Senate (+8)

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Amy Klobuchar is projected to get 56.6% of the vote and has a 99% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
TX-HouseChamber/TX-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast pending

TX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast TX-09/TX-23/TX-32/TX-15/TX-28/TX-34/TX-35: R wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35 Forecast
  2. Forecast TX-HouseChamber/TX-SenateChamber: TX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D) Forecast

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“Texas House: 79 R, 71 D. Texas Senate: 19-12.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-Sen/TX-Gov/TX-LtGov/TX-AG/TX-Comptroller · ForecastForecast pending

TX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast TX-RRC: toss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R) “Railroad Commission, toss-up.”
  2. Forecast TX-Sen/TX-Gov/TX-LtGov/TX-AG/TX-Comptroller: TX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5 Forecast

Jason Villalba, Chairman, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF, polls Texas); attorney; former member of the Texas Legislature (X bio). He served as a Republican state rep (background, not in bio); thread says 'a data analysis, not an endorsement', so classed nonpartisan

Nov 2, 2026 · X

“U.S. Senate, Talarico (D) +3. Governor, Abbott (R) +2.5. Lt. gov. and AG, R +3.5. Comptroller, R +5.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
TX-statewide · ForecastForecast pending

TX total votes ~11.4M; VEP turnout ~53.6%

Michael McDonald, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida (Bluesky bio)

Nov 2, 2026 · Bluesky

“Projecting out, that's 11.4 million votes for a turnout rate of 53.6% among those eligible to vote.”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early in-person and mail. The early count leans D. Later votes lean R, then late Dallas and Harris EDay D.
WI-AG/WI-SoS · ForecastForecast pending

WI-AG Leans D (Kaul); WI-SoS Leans D (open)

Leans Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Wisconsin: Josh Kaul, D”
Readable
Polls close 9:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: by geography; Dane and Milwaukee timing drives early totals. The early count is mixed. Later votes lean D.

10:00 pm ET

Polls close ID, MT, NV, UT · also ND (Central), OR (Mountain)

Key races ID-Sen MT-Sen NV-Gov MT-01 NV-02

AZ-02/NV-02 · BarGreat night pending

D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2

“would mark an historic tide”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Fair / floor AZ-Gov/AZ-01: Hobbs comfortable reelection; D flips AZ-1 “the minimum for a good Democratic night”
  2. Great night AZ-06: D (Mendoza) beats Ciscomani “More impressive”
  3. Great night AZ-02/NV-02: D wins AZ-2 (Nez) or NV-2 “would mark an historic tide”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Democratic wins in two other House districts would mark an historic tide.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
NV-Gov · BarWarning sign pending

Lombardo rural margin ≥ ~2022 margin (else likely loses)

“avoid being one-termer”

Jon Ralston, CEO/Editor, The Nevada Independent (Bluesky bio)

Oct 27, 2026 · Bluesky

“I did modeling and gov needs to win rural NV by close to his 2022 margin to avoid being one-termer.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
More markers (12)
NV-Gov · BarWarning sign pending

R EDay ballot edge ≥ ~30,000 needed to save Lombardo

“to have any chance of saving the governor”

Jon Ralston, CEO/Editor, The Nevada Independent (Bluesky bio)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“they are going to need to have tens of thousands of more ballots than the Dems on Tuesday – at least 30,000”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-Gov/MT-01 · BarGreat night pending

Ford (D) beats Lombardo; Forstag (D) wins MT-1

“a stronger Democratic current”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Aaron Ford over Republican Joe Lombardo in the Nevada governor race (where polls close at 10 p.m.) would likewise mark a stronger Democratic current.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
NV-02 · BarGood night pending

Chapman ≥ 12-15% → race up for grabs

“all bets are off”

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“And if IAP candidate Lynn Chapman gets to 12 percent to 15 percent, all bets are off.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-AssemblyChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42)

“Democratic supermajority”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
  2. Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
  3. Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
  4. Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
  5. Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
  6. Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The Assembly will have a Democratic supermajority, with at least 28 seats and as many as 32.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail)

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
  2. Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
  3. Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
  4. Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
  5. Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
  6. Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“I think Lombardo may well be leading late on election night. Maybe. But the day-after mail is going to put Ford over the top.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-trifecta · ForecastForecast pending

Lombardo (R) 74%; D favored in 28 of 42 Assembly and 13 of 21 Senate

State Navigate (model; executive director Chaz Nuttycombe), State Navigate, nonpartisan 501(c)(3) state-legislature forecaster (site)

Nov 2, 2026 · Web

“Joe Lombardo is projected to get 50.9% of the vote and has a 74% chance of winning.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
MT-01 · ForecastForecast pending

Sam Forstag (D) wins

long shot (paraphrase, not a quote)

Politix hosts, Matt Yglesias and Brian Beutler (speaker not confirmed), Co-hosts, Politix podcast (Yglesias: Slow Boring; Beutler: Off Message) Unattributed

Oct 28, 2026 · Podcast

Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mostly mail; only 14% by midnight in 2024; 1-2 days to 95% (NYT).
Caution
Counted first: mail ballots.
NV-01/NV-03/NV-04 · ForecastForecast pending

D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
  2. Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
  3. Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
  4. Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
  5. Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
  6. Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The current numbers show the incumbents with double-digit ballot leads. Those races are over.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-02 · ForecastForecast pending

Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
  2. Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
  3. Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
  4. Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
  5. Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
  6. Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Flippo, 46 percent, TBT, 44 percent; Chapman, 10 percent.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-AG/NV-SoS · ForecastForecast pending

NV-AG Leans D (open); NV-SoS Likely D (Aguilar)

Leans/Likely Democratic (paraphrase, not a quote)

Louis Jacobson, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball (byline)

Oct 29, 2026 · Substack

“Nevada: Open seat (Aaron Ford, D, is running for governor)”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-SenateChamber · ForecastForecast pending

D 13-8

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
  2. Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
  3. Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
  4. Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
  5. Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
  6. Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“The state Senate will be the same — 13-8, Dems.”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET. Slow: mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted through Nov 7; ~2 days to 95% in 2024 (NYT); Ralston expects counting and cures to finish ~1 week out. Late-counted mail leans D this year.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.
NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller) · ForecastForecast pending

D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Forecast NV-AssemblyChamber: D supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”
  2. Forecast NV-Gov: Ford 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail) Forecast
  3. Forecast NV-01/NV-03/NV-04: D holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42 Forecast
  4. Forecast NV-02: Flippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10 Forecast
  5. Forecast NV-SenateChamber: D 13-8 Forecast
  6. Forecast NV-statewide (LG, AG, SoS, Treasurer, Controller): D sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46 Forecast

Jon Ralston, CEO, The Nevada Independent (byline line)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“Lombardo may drown in the blue wave, but the other Republican statewide candidates are already submerged”
Readable
Polls close 10:00 pm ET.
Caution
Counted first: early mail and early in-person. The early count leans D. Later votes lean D; EDay in between leans R.

11:00 pm ET

Polls close CA, OR, WA · also ID (Pacific), ND (Mountain)

Key races OR-Sen OR-Gov CA-22

OR-Gov · BarGreat night pending

Kotek holds

“send a stronger signal”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“it will send a stronger signal that the backlash against Trump is virtually insurmountable for blue state Republicans.”
Readable
Polls close 11:00 pm ET. Slow: all-mail; more than a week to 95%; postmarked ballots have 7 days (NYT).
Caution
Counted first: mail ballots.
CA-22 · ForecastForecast pending

Valadao (R) loses by ~9 (D margin ~ +9)

“i personally expect him to lose by ~9”

Lakshya Jain, Polling and political data, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (X bio)

Oct 30, 2026 · X

“i personally expect him to lose by ~9. (fwiw it's up to D+5 after the USC poll today)”
Readable
Polls close 11:00 pm ET. Very slow: mostly mail, counties have weeks; the final House call in 2024 came 29 days later (NYT).
Caution
Counted first: mail ballots received before Election Day.
More markers (1)
CA-22/WA-03 · BarGood night pending

Villegas (D) ousts Valadao; Gluesenkamp Perez holds WA-3

“a good result for Democrats”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“it will be a good result for Democrats if progressive Randy Villegas finally ousts Republican David Valadao”
Readable
Polls close 11:00 pm ET. Very slow: mostly mail, counties have weeks; the final House call in 2024 came 29 days later (NYT).
Caution
Counted first: mail ballots received before Election Day.

12:00 am ET

Polls close AK, HI

Key races AK-Sen AK-Gov

AK-Sen · BarGreat night pending

Peltola wins

“More significant”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night AK-Gov: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) wins “Democrats on a solid path in the state”
  2. Great night AK-Sen: Peltola wins “More significant”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“More significant would be a victory in the Alaska Senate race for Democrat Mary Peltola”
Readable
Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution
Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
AK-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

Peltola underperforms Split Ticket model margin

Lakshya Jain, The Argument; co-founder, Split Ticket (byline)

Nov 2, 2026 · Substack

“my guess would be that Peltola slightly underperforms the model’s margins.”
Readable
Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution
Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
More markers (3)
AK-Gov · BarGood night pending

Kreiss-Tomkins (D) wins

“Democrats on a solid path in the state”

This analyst’s ladder, same piece

  1. Good night AK-Gov: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) wins “Democrats on a solid path in the state”
  2. Great night AK-Sen: Peltola wins “More significant”

Ronald Brownstein, CNN (byline)

Nov 1, 2026 · Web

“a win would show Democrats on a solid path in the state.”
Readable
Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution
Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
AK-Sen · ForecastForecast pending

D margin ~ +3 to +4 (Peltola)

Patrick Ruffini, Pollster, Echelon Insights (X bio: 'Pollster @EchelonInsights'). R evidence: Echelon Insights is the Republican polling firm he co-founded; he was RNC eCampaign director (background, not stated in bio)

Oct 31, 2026 · X

“probably good enough for Peltola +3 or 4 if the story doesn’t change anything”
Readable
Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution
Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.
AK-Gov · ForecastForecast pending

D wins

“on track to win the governor’s race”

Brian Beutler, Off Message; Politix co-host (Bluesky bio)

Oct 30, 2026 · Bluesky

“They’re on track to win the governor’s race anyhow”
Readable
Polls close 12:00 am ET. Very slow: first results ~1 am ET; ~75% reported on election night in 2024; rest 7-15 days later. RCV tabulation if no one tops 50% (NYT: Nov 18; Downballot: 1-2 weeks). Not known on the night.
Caution
Counted first: mixed. Ranked-choice race: only first choices are known on the night.

1:00 am ET

Polls close No full states · also AK (Hawaii-Aleutian)

Alaska’s first results usually arrive around now; its bars are under 12:00 am.

Key races —

No analyst bar is pinned to this hour yet.

Predictions board

Point predictions, kept apart from the conditional bars above. Model rows are reference points with their dates. Results are marked on the night.

House D seats

WhoPredictionDateResult
Alan AbramowitzD 239-196 (D+24)Oct 29, 2026pending
Brian BeutlerD seats = 242Oct 28, 2026pending
Dave WassermanD net gain 12-25 seats (Cook ratings) “more than enough for a majority”Oct 30, 2026pending
Erick EricksonR net House loss ~25 (D ~240)Nov 1, 2026pending
Erin CoveyD net gain 12-25 (up to 240 seats)Oct 30, 2026pending
J. Miles ColemanD House seats = 239Nov 2, 2026pending
Jacob RubashkinD net gain 20-30Oct 30, 2026pending
Kyle KondikD seats > 235Nov 2, 2026pending
Lakshya JainD House seats = 239 (P(D House) 92%)Nov 2, 2026pending
Matt YglesiasD seats = 235Oct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedD+9 'very likely'; D seats 230-245 “very likely”Oct 28, 2026pending
Model Split Ticket model (The Argument)Median 239 D seats; 91.7% chance of D House controlOct 31, 2026
Model VoteHub forecast89.2% chance of D House controlNov 2, 2026

Senate D seats

WhoPredictionDateResult
Alan AbramowitzD 53-47 (D+6)Oct 29, 2026pending
Brian BeutlerD Senate seats = 53Oct 28, 2026pending
G. Elliott MorrisP(D Senate) = 0.75, possibly toward 0.80Nov 1, 2026pending
J. Miles ColemanD Senate seats = 53Nov 2, 2026pending
Lakshya JainSeat #50 = TX-Sen, seat #51 = ME-SenOct 29, 2026pending
Lakshya JainD Senate seats = 53 (P(D Senate) 77%)Nov 2, 2026pending
Matt YglesiasD Senate seats = 51 “fall a little short”Oct 28, 2026pending
Patrick RuffiniP(D control) = 54% (fundamentals-only model; 46% if presidential correlation stays at current levels)Oct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedFlanagan (MN) and Pappas (NH) win; Angie Nixon (FL) and Adam Hamilton (KS) leads are mirages “chalkier”Oct 28, 2026pending
Scott RasmussenD seats = 50 at Lean D or better (47 Safe/Likely + 3 Lean)Nov 1, 2026pending
Model Split Ticket model (The Argument)Median 53 D seats; 72.4% chance of D Senate controlNov 2, 2026
Model VoteHub forecast67.9% chance of D Senate controlNov 2, 2026
Model Silver Bulletin FLIPR (free preview)Senate odds roughly 3-to-1 for DemocratsNov 1, 2026

Both chambers

WhoPredictionDateResult
G. Elliott MorrisD wins both House and Senate (more likely than not, 50+1 forecast) “more likely than not”Nov 2, 2026pending
Jason VillalbaD House ~236; Senate 52-48 DNov 2, 2026pending
Rachel Bitecoferoutcome = big ass blue wave (middle tier of her ladder) “BOTH predicting a Big Ass Wave”Nov 2, 2026pending

Governors

WhoPredictionDateResult
Brian BeutlerD wins “on track to win the governor’s race”Oct 30, 2026pending
J. Miles ColemanD governorships = 28Nov 2, 2026pending
Jacob RubashkinGA, WI, AK, OH Gov Tilt D; MI Gov Lean D “Toss-up➡️Tilt Dem”Oct 29, 2026pending
Jason VillalbaTX-Sen D +3; TX-Gov R +2.5; Lt Gov and AG R +3.5; Comptroller R +5Nov 2, 2026pending
Jon RalstonFord 46, Lombardo 45 (Ford wins after day-after mail)Nov 1, 2026pending
Kyle KondikGA-Gov and NV-Gov Leans DNov 2, 2026pending
Kyle KondikHobbs (D) wins (Crystal Ball: Likely D) “it should be a shock if Katie Hobbs lost”Oct 27, 2026pending
Kyle KondikD wins a clear majority of governorships (≥ 26 by our reading) “in good shape to grab a clear majority of governors”Nov 1, 2026pending
Lakshya JainD: WI, NV, GA, OH, AK, MI, AZ governor; R: KS, VT, NH, TX, FL governor “WI: likely Dem NV: tilt Dem GA: lean Dem OH: lean Dem”Oct 27, 2026pending
State NavigateBottoms 50.3%, 54%Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateBenson 54.3%, 94%Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateShapiro 61.1%, >99%Nov 2, 2026pending

Trifectas and chamber flips

WhoPredictionDateResult
Jason VillalbaTX House R 79 - D 71; TX Senate 19-12 (R-D)Nov 2, 2026pending
Jon RalstonD supermajority, 28-32 seats (of 42) “Democratic supermajority”Nov 1, 2026pending
Jon RalstonD 13-8Nov 1, 2026pending
Matt YglesiasHobbs wins; D probably flips legislature (AZ trifecta)Oct 29, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedD flips one NC legislative chamberOct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedD flips both AZ chambers; regains NV trifecta; breaks through in WI; restores MN and MI trifectas; flips PA Senate (trifecta); takes ≥ 1 NH chamberOct 28, 2026pending
State NavigateHobbs 93%; D favored in 34 of 60 House (+7) and 17 of 30 Senate (+4)Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 87 of 180 (+6); R 93Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 24 of 56 (+1); R 32Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 33 of 100 (+3); R 67Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 13 of 50 (+3); R 37Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 62 of 110 (+10)Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 23 of 38 (+3)Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateKlobuchar 99%; D favored in 80 of 134 House (+13) and 42 of 67 Senate (+8)Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateNC House D narrow favorites (59-61 favored seats); NC Senate R solid favorites (23-27)Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateAyotte (R) 96%; D favored in 252 of 400 House (+73); Senate 12-12Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateLombardo (R) 74%; D favored in 28 of 42 Assembly and 13 of 21 SenateNov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 112 of 203 (+9)Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateD favored in 26 of 50 (+3)Nov 2, 2026pending
State NavigateCrowley 75%; D favored in 52 of 99 Assembly (+7) and 18 of 33 Senate (+3)Nov 2, 2026pending

Named surprises

WhoPredictionDateResult
Politix hosts UnattributedAnnie Andrews (D) winsOct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedJonathan Nez (D) winsOct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedCollins (R) beats Troy Jackson (D)Oct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedScott Colom (D) has a real chance vs Cindy Hyde-Smith “a fighter's chance”Oct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedAdam Hamilton (D) beats Roger Marshall (R)Oct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedSam Forstag (D) winsOct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedBob Brooks (D) winsOct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedNancy Lacore (D) winsOct 28, 2026pending

Race calls, margins and ratings

WhoPredictionDateResult
G. Elliott MorrisNixon (D) loses FL-Sen “very likely losing”Oct 27, 2026pending
Jacob RubashkinTX-Sen and OH-Sen Tilt D “Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Dem”Oct 29, 2026pending
Jason Villalbatoss-up (Rosenthal D vs French R) “Railroad Commission, toss-up.”Nov 2, 2026pending
Jason VillalbaR wins TX-09, TX-23, TX-32; D wins TX-15, TX-28, TX-34, TX-35Nov 2, 2026pending
Jon RalstonD holds: Titus 50-41, Lee 49-44, Horsford 52-42Nov 1, 2026pending
Jon RalstonFlippo 46, Benitez-Thompson 44, Chapman 10Nov 1, 2026pending
Jon RalstonD sweep: Jauregui 48-43, Cannizzaro 50-44, Aguilar 52-39, Mathis-Coleman 48-44, MacDougall 48-46Nov 1, 2026pending
Kyle KondikR holds the SC, LA and MS Senate seats “I doubt Rs actually lose any of these Senate seats”Oct 29, 2026pending
Lakshya JainPeltola underperforms Split Ticket model marginNov 2, 2026pending
Lakshya JainDandiya (D) wins FL-22 “I'd probably take a heavy "over" on Democrats in FL-22”Oct 29, 2026pending
Lakshya JainCrane (R) holds AZ-02 “the under on AZ-02 (Crane wins)”Oct 29, 2026pending
Lakshya JainValadao (R) loses by ~9 (D margin ~ +9) “i personally expect him to lose by ~9”Oct 30, 2026pending
Lakshya JainTalarico (D) wins (model: Likely D) “Talarico at Likely D”Nov 1, 2026pending
Louis JacobsonAZ-AG Leans D (Mayes); AZ-SoS Likely D (Fontes)Oct 29, 2026pending
Louis JacobsonGA-AG and GA-SoS Toss-upOct 29, 2026pending
Louis JacobsonLeans D (Bayh)Oct 29, 2026pending
Louis JacobsonMI-SoS Leans D; MI-AG Toss-upOct 29, 2026pending
Louis JacobsonMN-AG Toss-up (Ellison); MN-SoS Leans D (Simon)Oct 29, 2026pending
Louis JacobsonNV-AG Leans D (open); NV-SoS Likely D (Aguilar)Oct 29, 2026pending
Louis JacobsonWI-AG Leans D (Kaul); WI-SoS Leans D (open)Oct 29, 2026pending
Matt YglesiasD winsOct 31, 2026pending
Michael McDonaldTX total votes ~11.4M; VEP turnout ~53.6%Nov 2, 2026pending
Patrick Ruffinifinal electorate a touch left of 2018 (2018 voters D+3.3; current estimate D+3.0) “well within range of a "normal" wave, not a tsunami”Oct 30, 2026pending
Patrick RuffiniD margin ~ +3 to +4 (Peltola)Oct 31, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedMatt Dunlap (D) winsOct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedPaige Cognetti (D) wins “will probably win”Oct 28, 2026pending
Politix hosts UnattributedD wins TX-15 (Bobby Pulido) and TX-35 (Johnny Garcia)Oct 28, 2026pending

National vote (model reference)

WhoPredictionDateResult
Model Silver Bulletin generic-ballot averageD 52.8, R 43.4 (D+9.4)Nov 2, 2026
Model VoteHub generic-ballot averageD 52, R 43 (D+9)Nov 2, 2026

State races

The 14 target states, plus North Carolina’s Supreme Court seat: the chambers, the statewide offices and court seats on the ballot, the followed legislators who face an opponent, and the bars set for them. Outlets rarely call state chambers; control may not be known on the night.

Michigan

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State Senate38 of 382020 D - 18 R - 0
State House110 of 1105652 D - 58 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Jocelyn Benson · R John James
  • Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor): D Winnie Brinks · R Jay DeBoyer
  • Secretary of State: D Garlin Gilchrist II · R Anthony Forlini
  • Attorney General: D Eli Savit · R Doug Lloyd
  • Supreme Court (2 seats, nonpartisan ballot, party-nominated): D Megan Cavanagh, Noah Hood · R Casandra Morse-Bills, Michael D. Warren Jr.
  • State Board of Education (2 seats): D Judith Pritchett, Tiffany Tilley · R Terence Collins, Bree Moeggenberg
  • University of Michigan Board of Regents (2 seats): D Paul Brown, Amir Makled · R Lena Epstein, Michael Schostak
  • Michigan State University Board of Trustees (2 seats): D Brianna Scott, Kelly Tebay · R Julie Maday, Roger Victory
  • Wayne State University Board of Governors (2 seats): D Shereef Akeel, Richard Mack · R Andy Anuzis, Christa Murphy
  • State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT

Markers (5)

Michigan results page

Pennsylvania

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State Senate25 of 502623 D - 27 R - 0
State House203 of 203102103 D - 100 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Josh Shapiro · R Stacy Garrity
  • Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor): D Austin Davis · R Jason Richey
  • State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT
  • Supreme Court: NOT ON BALLOT (no seats or retention votes in 2026)

Markers (3)

Pennsylvania results page

Georgia

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State Senate56 of 562922 D - 33 R - 0 (1 vacancy)
State House180 of 1809181 D - 99 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Keisha Lance Bottoms · R Rick Jackson
  • Lieutenant Governor: D Josh McLaurin · R Greg Dolezal
  • Secretary of State: D Penny Brown Reynolds · R Tim Fleming
  • Attorney General: D Tanya Miller · R Brian Strickland
  • Commissioner of Agriculture: D Katherine Juhan-Arnold · R Tyler Harper
  • Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner: D Keisha Sean Waites · R John King
  • Commissioner of Labor: D Nikki Porcher · R Bárbara Rivera Holmes
  • State School Superintendent: D Lydia Powell · R Richard Woods
  • Public Service Commission District 3 (statewide vote): D Peter Hubbard · R Fitz Johnson
  • Public Service Commission District 5 (statewide vote): D Shelia Edwards · R Josh Tolbert
  • State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT
  • Supreme Court: NOT ON BALLOT (decided May 19 2026)

Markers (10)

Georgia results page

Indiana

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State Senate25 of 502610 D - 40 R - 0
State House100 of 1005130 D - 70 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: NOT ON BALLOT (elected in presidential years)
  • Secretary of State: D Beau Bayh · R Max Engling
  • Treasurer of State: D Coumba Kebe · R Daniel Elliott
  • Comptroller of State (formerly Auditor of State): D Jessica Bailey · R Elise Nieshalla

Markers (4)

Indiana results page

Iowa

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State House100 of 1005133 D - 66 R - 1 vacant
State Senate25 of 502617 D - 32 R - 1 vacant

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Rob Sand · R Zach Lahn
  • Treasurer of State: D John Norwood · R Roby Smith

Followed legislators

  • Iowa Senate District 39: Liz Bennett (D) v Edward Bernie Hayes (R)
    Liz Bennett: Ranking Member, Technology; 1st term
  • Iowa Senate District 49: Cindy Winckler (D) v Cynthia Mensendick (R)
    Cindy Winckler: Senate Assistant Minority Leader; 1st term; Ranking member, Senate State Government (committee table)

Markers (1)

Iowa results page

Wisconsin

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State Senate17 of 331715 D - 18 R - 0
State Assembly99 of 995045 D - 54 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D David Crowley · R Tom Tiffany
  • State Treasurer: D Yee Leng Xiong · R John Leiber

Markers (4)

Wisconsin results page

Kansas

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State House125 of 1256337 D - 87 R - 1 vacant
State Senate: NOT ON BALLOT (next election 2028)0 of 40219 D - 31 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Cindy Holscher · R Ty Masterson
  • State Treasurer: D Juan Luengo · R Steven C. Johnson
  • Supreme Court (2 seats, retention votes): Justices Eric Rosen (appointed 2005) and Larkin Walsh (appointed 2025), both by Democratic governors (yes/no retention votes)

Kansas results page

Arizona

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State Senate30 of 301613 D - 17 R - 0
State House60 of 603127 D - 33 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Katie Hobbs · R Andy Biggs
  • State Treasurer: D Nick Mansour · R Elijah Norton
  • Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote): Justice John Lopez IV (yes/no retention vote; appointed by Gov. Ducey, 2016)

Markers (4)

Arizona results page

Alaska

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State House40 of 402114 D - 21 R - 4 nonpartisan - 1 other
State Senate10 of 20119 D - 11 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Jonathan S. "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins · R Dave Bronson, Treg Taylor, Bernadette M. Wilson
  • Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT (no elected treasurer; Commissioner of Revenue appointed by the governor)
  • Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote): Justice Jude Pate (yes/no retention vote)

Markers (2)

Alaska results page

Massachusetts

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State House160 of 16081132 D - 25 R - 1 other - 2 vacant
State Senate40 of 402135 D - 5 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Maura Healey · R Michael Minogue
  • Treasurer and Receiver-General: D Deborah B. Goldberg · R Elizabeth Dionne

Followed legislators

  • Massachusetts House, 35th Middlesex District: Paul J. Donato (D) v James C. Seibel (R)
    Paul Donato: House Second Assistant Majority Leader; 13th term

Massachusetts results page

Tennessee

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State House99 of 995023 D - 75 R - 1 vacant
State Senate17 of 33176 D - 27 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Jerri Green · R Marsha Blackburn
  • State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT (elected by the General Assembly)

Tennessee results page

West Virginia

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
House of Delegates100 of 100519 D - 91 R - 0
State Senate17 of 34182 D - 32 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: NOT ON BALLOT (elected in presidential years)
  • State Treasurer: NOT ON BALLOT (elected in presidential years)

West Virginia results page

Arkansas

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State House100 of 1005120 D - 79 R - 1 vacant
State Senate17 of 35186 D - 27 R - 2 vacant

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Fredrick Love · R Sarah Huckabee Sanders
  • State Treasurer: R John Thurston

Arkansas results page

Alabama

ChamberSeats upMajorityNow
State House105 of 1055329 D - 76 R - 0
State Senate35 of 35188 D - 27 R - 0

Statewide offices

  • Governor: D Doug Jones · R Tommy Tuberville
  • State Treasurer: D Rosilyn Houston · R Young Boozer
  • Supreme Court (2 seats, partisan): D AshLeigh Meyer Dunham · R Greg Shaw, Brad Mendheim

Alabama results page

North Carolina (Supreme Court seat only)

Statewide offices

  • Supreme Court Associate Justice Seat 01 (partisan): D Anita Earls · R Sarah Stevens

North Carolina results page

Race list

Every race on the board, by poll-closing time, with links to the state, AP and each outlet.

Outlet links go to each outlet’s race page where its address pattern is known (AP, Fox, DDHQ Senate), otherwise to its 2026 results hub. NYT shows AP’s calls.

  1. KY-Sen6:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Charles Booker · R Andy Barr

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  2. IN-056:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D J.D. Ford · R Victoria Spartz

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  3. KY-066:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Zach Dembo · R Ralph Alvarado

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  4. US-House6:00 pm ET

    US House control markers

    D Democrats · R Republicans

    Results links

    AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  5. IN-Comptroller6:00 pm ET

    Comptroller of State (formerly Auditor of State)

    D Jessica Bailey · R Elise Nieshalla

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  6. IN-HouseChamber6:00 pm ET

    State House markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  7. IN-SenateChamber6:00 pm ET

    State Senate markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  8. IN-SoS6:00 pm ET

    Secretary of State markers

    D Beau Bayh · R Max Engling

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  9. IN-Treasurer6:00 pm ET

    Treasurer of State

    D Coumba Kebe · R Daniel Elliott

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  10. GA-Sen7:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Jon Ossoff · R Mike Collins

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  11. SC-Sen7:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Annie Andrews · R Darline Graham

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  12. US-Senate7:00 pm ET

    US Senate control markers

    D Democratic caucus · R Republican conference

    Results links

    AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  13. VA-Sen7:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Mark Warner · R Bert Mizusawa

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  14. GA-Gov7:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Keisha Lance Bottoms · R Rick Jackson

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  15. VT-Gov7:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Amanda Janoo · R Phil Scott

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  16. FL-097:00 pm ET

    US House

    D Darren Soto · R Dan Green

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  17. FL-147:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Kathy Castor · R Mike Beltran

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  18. FL-227:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Pia Dandiya · R Casey Askar

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  19. FL-257:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Jared Moskowitz · R Scott Singer

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  20. FL-277:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Eliott Rodriguez · R Maria Elvira Salazar

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  21. SC-017:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Nancy Lacore · R Jenny Costa Honeycutt

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  22. VA-017:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Shannon Taylor · R Rob Wittman

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  23. VA-027:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Elaine Luria · R Jen Kiggans

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  24. VA-057:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Tom Perriello · R John McGuire

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  25. GA-AG7:00 pm ET

    Attorney General markers

    D Tanya Miller · R Brian Strickland

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  26. GA-AgCommissioner7:00 pm ET

    Commissioner of Agriculture

    D Katherine Juhan-Arnold · R Tyler Harper

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  27. GA-HouseChamber7:00 pm ET

    State House markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  28. GA-InsCommissioner7:00 pm ET

    Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner

    D Keisha Sean Waites · R John King

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  29. GA-LaborCommissioner7:00 pm ET

    Commissioner of Labor

    D Nikki Porcher · R Bárbara Rivera Holmes

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  30. GA-LtGov7:00 pm ET

    Lieutenant Governor

    D Josh McLaurin · R Greg Dolezal

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  31. GA-PSC-37:00 pm ET

    Public Service Commission District 3 (statewide vote) markers

    D Peter Hubbard · R Fitz Johnson

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  32. GA-PSC-57:00 pm ET

    Public Service Commission District 5 (statewide vote) markers

    D Shelia Edwards · R Josh Tolbert

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  33. GA-SchoolSupt7:00 pm ET

    State School Superintendent

    D Lydia Powell · R Richard Woods

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  34. GA-SenateChamber7:00 pm ET

    State Senate markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  35. GA-SoS7:00 pm ET

    Secretary of State markers

    D Penny Brown Reynolds · R Tim Fleming

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  36. NC-Sen7:30 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Roy Cooper · R Michael Whatley

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  37. OH-Sen7:30 pm ET

    US Senate (special) markers

    D Sherrod Brown · R Jon Husted

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  38. WV-Sen7:30 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Rachel Fetty Anderson · R Shelley Moore Capito

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  39. OH-Gov7:30 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Amy Acton · R Vivek Ramaswamy

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  40. NC-017:30 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Don Davis · R Laurie Buckhout

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  41. NC-117:30 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Jamie Ager · R Jennifer Capps Balkcom

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  42. OH-077:30 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Brian Poindexter · R Max Miller

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  43. NC-SupremeCourt7:30 pm ET

    Supreme Court Associate Justice Seat 01 (partisan)

    D Anita Earls · R Sarah Stevens

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  44. WV-HouseChamber7:30 pm ET

    House of Delegates

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  45. WV-SenateChamber7:30 pm ET

    State Senate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  46. AL-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Everett Wess · R Barry Moore

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  47. DE-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Chris Coons · R Michael Katz

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  48. FL-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate (special) markers

    D Angie Nixon · R Ashley B. Moody

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  49. IL-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Juliana Stratton · R Don Tracy

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  50. KS-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Adam Hamilton · R Roger Marshall

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  51. MA-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Edward J. Markey · R John Deaton

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  52. ME-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Troy D. Jackson · R Susan Collins

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  53. MI-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Abdul El-Sayed · R Mike Rogers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  54. MS-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Scott Colom · R Cindy Hyde-Smith

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  55. NH-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Chris Pappas · R John Sununu

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  56. NJ-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Cory Booker · R Justin Murphy

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  57. OK-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D N'Kiyla Thomas · R Kevin Hern

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  58. RI-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Jack Reed · R Raymond McKay

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  59. SD-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    R Mike Rounds · I Brian Bengs

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  60. TN-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Marquita Bradshaw · R Bill Hagerty

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  61. TX-Sen8:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D James Talarico · R Ken Paxton

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  62. AL-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor

    D Doug Jones · R Tommy Tuberville

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  63. FL-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D David Jolly · R Byron Donalds

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  64. KS-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Cindy Holscher · R Ty Masterson

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  65. MA-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor

    D Maura Healey · R Michael Minogue

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  66. ME-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Hannah Pingree · R Bobby Charles

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  67. MI-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Jocelyn Benson · R John James

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  68. NH-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Cinde Warmington · R Kelly Ayotte

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  69. PA-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Josh Shapiro · R Stacy Garrity

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  70. TN-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor

    D Jerri Green · R Marsha Blackburn

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  71. TX-Gov8:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Gina Hinojosa · R Greg Abbott

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  72. AL-028:00 pm ET

    US House

    D Shomari Figures · R Rhett Marques

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  73. ME-028:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Matt Dunlap · R Paul LePage

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  74. MI-048:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Sean McCann · R Bill Huizenga

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  75. MI-078:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Will Lawrence · R Tom Barrett

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  76. NJ-078:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Rebecca Bennett · R Tom Kean

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  77. PA-018:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Bob Harvie · R Brian Fitzpatrick

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  78. PA-078:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Bob Brooks · R Ryan Mackenzie

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  79. PA-088:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Paige Cognetti · R Rob Bresnahan

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  80. PA-108:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Janelle Stelson · R Scott Perry

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  81. TN-098:00 pm ET

    US House

    D Justin Pearson · R Brent Taylor

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  82. TX-158:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Bobby Pulido · R Monica De La Cruz

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  83. TX-238:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Katy Padilla Stout · R Brandon Herrera

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  84. TX-288:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Henry Cuellar · R Tano Tijerina

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  85. TX-348:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Vicente Gonzalez · R Eric Flores

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  86. TX-358:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Johnny Garcia · R Carlos De La Cruz

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  87. AL-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

    State House

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  88. AL-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

    State Senate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  89. AL-SupremeCourt8:00 pm ET

    Supreme Court (2 seats, partisan)

    D AshLeigh Meyer Dunham · R Greg Shaw

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  90. AL-Treasurer8:00 pm ET

    State Treasurer

    D Rosilyn Houston · R Young Boozer

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  91. KS-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

    State House

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  92. KS-SupremeCourt8:00 pm ET

    Supreme Court (2 seats, retention votes)

    I Justices Eric Rosen

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  93. KS-Treasurer8:00 pm ET

    State Treasurer

    D Juan Luengo · R Steven C. Johnson

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  94. MA-HD-35thMiddlesex8:00 pm ET

    Massachusetts House, 35th Middlesex District

    D Paul J. Donato · R James C. Seibel

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  95. MA-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

    State House

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  96. MA-SD-MiddlesexSuffolk8:00 pm ET

    Massachusetts Senate, Middlesex and Suffolk District

    D Sal N. DiDomenico

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  97. MA-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

    State Senate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  98. MA-Treasurer8:00 pm ET

    Treasurer and Receiver-General

    D Deborah B. Goldberg · R Elizabeth Dionne

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  99. MI-AG8:00 pm ET

    Attorney General markers

    D Eli Savit · R Doug Lloyd

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  100. MI-BoardOfEducation8:00 pm ET

    State Board of Education (2 seats)

    D Judith Pritchett; Tiffany Tilley · R Terence Collins; Bree Moeggenberg

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  101. MI-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

    State House markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  102. MI-LtGov8:00 pm ET

    Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor)

    D Winnie Brinks · R Jay DeBoyer

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  103. MI-MSUTrustees8:00 pm ET

    Michigan State University Board of Trustees (2 seats)

    D Brianna Scott; Kelly Tebay · R Julie Maday; Roger Victory

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  104. MI-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

    State Senate markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  105. MI-SoS8:00 pm ET

    Secretary of State markers

    D Garlin Gilchrist II · R Anthony Forlini

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  106. MI-SupremeCourt8:00 pm ET

    Supreme Court (2 seats, nonpartisan ballot, party-nominated)

    D Megan Cavanagh · R Casandra Morse-Bills; Michael D. Warren Jr.

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  107. MI-UMRegents8:00 pm ET

    University of Michigan Board of Regents (2 seats)

    D Paul Brown · R Lena Epstein; Michael Schostak

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  108. MI-WSUGovernors8:00 pm ET

    Wayne State University Board of Governors (2 seats)

    D Shereef Akeel; Richard Mack · R Andy Anuzis; Christa Murphy

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  109. PA-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

    State House markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  110. PA-LtGov8:00 pm ET

    Lieutenant Governor (joint ticket with Governor)

    D Austin Davis · R Jason Richey

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  111. PA-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

    State Senate markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  112. TN-HouseChamber8:00 pm ET

    State House

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  113. TN-SenateChamber8:00 pm ET

    State Senate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  114. TX-RRC8:00 pm ET

    Railroad Commissioner (at-large seat held by Jim Wright) markers

    D Jon Rosenthal · R Bo French

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  115. AR-Sen8:30 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Hallie Shoffner · R Tom Cotton

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  116. AR-Gov8:30 pm ET

    Governor

    D Fredrick Love · R Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  117. AR-HouseChamber8:30 pm ET

    State House

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  118. AR-SenateChamber8:30 pm ET

    State Senate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  119. AR-Treasurer8:30 pm ET

    State Treasurer

    R John Thurston

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  120. CO-Sen9:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D John Hickenlooper · R Mark Baisley

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  121. IA-Sen9:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Josh Turek · R Ashley Hinson

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  122. LA-Sen9:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Jamie Davis · R Julia Letlow

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  123. MN-Sen9:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    D Peggy Flanagan · R Michele Tafoya

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  124. NE-Sen9:00 pm ET

    US Senate markers

    R Pete Ricketts · I Dan Osborn

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  125. NM-Sen9:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Ben Ray Luján · R Larry E. Marker

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  126. WY-Sen9:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D James Byrd · R Harriet Hageman

    Results links

    AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  127. AZ-Gov9:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Katie Hobbs · R Andy Biggs

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  128. IA-Gov9:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Rob Sand · R Zach Lahn

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  129. WI-Gov9:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D David Crowley · R Tom Tiffany

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  130. AZ-019:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Amish Shah · R Jay Feely

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  131. AZ-029:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Jonathan Nez · R Eli Crane

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  132. AZ-069:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D JoAnna Mendoza · R Juan Ciscomani

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  133. CO-059:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Jessica Killin · R Jeff Crank

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  134. CO-089:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Manny Rutinel · R Gabe Evans

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  135. IA-019:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Christina Bohannan · R Mariannette Miller-Meeks

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  136. IA-039:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Sarah Trone Garriott · R Zach Nunn

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  137. NE-029:00 pm ET

    US House

    D Denise Powell · R Brinker Harding

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  138. NY-179:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Cait Conley · R Mike Lawler

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  139. NY-219:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Blake Gendebien · R Anthony Constantino

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  140. WI-039:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Rebecca Cooke · R Derrick Van Orden

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  141. AZ-HouseChamber9:00 pm ET

    State House markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  142. AZ-SenateChamber9:00 pm ET

    State Senate markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  143. AZ-SupremeCourt9:00 pm ET

    Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote)

    I Justice John Lopez IV

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  144. AZ-Treasurer9:00 pm ET

    State Treasurer

    D Nick Mansour · R Elijah Norton

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  145. IA-HD-299:00 pm ET

    Iowa House District 29

    D Brian Meyer

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  146. IA-HD-449:00 pm ET

    Iowa House District 44

    D Larry McBurney

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  147. IA-HD-499:00 pm ET

    Iowa House District 49

    D Beth Wessel-Kroeschell

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  148. IA-HD-859:00 pm ET

    Iowa House District 85

    D Amy Nielsen

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  149. IA-HD-869:00 pm ET

    Iowa House District 86

    D Dave Jacoby

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  150. IA-HouseChamber9:00 pm ET

    State House

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  151. IA-SD-399:00 pm ET

    Iowa Senate District 39

    D Liz Bennett · R Edward Bernie Hayes

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  152. IA-SD-499:00 pm ET

    Iowa Senate District 49

    D Cindy Winckler · R Cynthia Mensendick

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  153. IA-SenateChamber9:00 pm ET

    State Senate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  154. IA-Treasurer9:00 pm ET

    Treasurer of State

    D John Norwood · R Roby Smith

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  155. WI-AssemblyChamber9:00 pm ET

    State Assembly markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  156. WI-SenateChamber9:00 pm ET

    State Senate markers

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  157. WI-Treasurer9:00 pm ET

    State Treasurer

    D Yee Leng Xiong · R John Leiber

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  158. ID-Sen10:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    R Jim Risch · I Todd Achilles

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  159. MT-Sen10:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Alani Bankhead · R Kurt Alme · I Seth Bodnar

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  160. NV-Gov10:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Aaron Ford · R Joe Lombardo

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  161. MT-0110:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Sam Forstag · R Aaron Flint

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  162. NV-0210:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson · R David Flippo

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  163. OR-Sen11:00 pm ET

    US Senate

    D Jeff Merkley · R David Brock Smith

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  164. OR-Gov11:00 pm ET

    Governor markers

    D Tina Kotek · R Christine Drazan

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  165. CA-2211:00 pm ET

    US House markers

    D Randy Villegas · R David Valadao

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  166. CA-4811:00 pm ET

    US House

    D Marni von Wilpert · R Jim Desmond

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  167. AK-Sen12:00 am ET

    US Senate markers

    D Mary Peltola · R Dan S. Sullivan

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  168. AK-Gov12:00 am ET

    Governor markers

    D Jonathan S. "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins · R Dave Bronson; Treg Taylor; Bernadette M. Wilson

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  169. AK-HouseChamber12:00 am ET

    State House

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  170. AK-SD-K12:00 am ET

    Alaska Senate District K

    D Bill Wielechowski

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  171. AK-SenateChamber12:00 am ET

    State Senate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

  172. AK-SupremeCourt12:00 am ET

    Supreme Court (1 seat, retention vote)

    I Justice Jude Pate

    Results links

    State results AP Fox DDHQ NYT NBC ABC CBS CNN

About

We collected statements, posted from Oct 27 through Election Day, in which a named analyst says what number would signal a good or bad night for Democrats. Each one was captured from the analyst’s own post, article or podcast. Each card gives the number in a normal form, the analyst’s own tier words, and a quote of 25 words or fewer. Each card is timed to its race’s poll-closing hour from the state’s own election office. The tier tags (Fair / floor, Good night, Great night, Warning sign) are our grouping of the analyst’s words, for filtering only. This page reports what the analysts said; it does not predict.

This build carries 216 markers: 125 bars and 91 point predictions. Headlines are 2 or 3 per hour, ranked by the races named when the checklist was set, races where three or more analysts set bars, and explicit tier words. No analyst appears twice in an hour, and none takes more than 4 headlines across the night.

Analyst mix (affiliation class)
ClassMarkersAnalysts
D72
R31
nonpartisan20534
unknown11

Balance

Every analyst here is a journalist, forecaster or academic. Strategists of both parties have not been swept yet, so this mix is lopsided by design of what was reachable, not by choice.

What isn’t covered

  • Paywalled analysis: Silver Bulletin (chamber odds and most maps), Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, The Argument beyond its free preview, Off Message, The Downballot’s paid posts, and Michael McDonald’s paid early-vote forecasts. We signed up for nothing.
  • X accounts not yet swept: Nathaniel Rakich and Domenico Montanaro on X (their articles and Bluesky are in), Decision Desk HQ, VoteHub, Tom Bonier, Patrick Ruffini, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Sean Trende, Henry Olsen, Simon Rosenberg, and state reporters in MI, PA, GA and IN.
  • Bars from accounts whose bios we could not confirm, and bars we only saw quoted secondhand, are held back until the original is captured.
  • No analyst bar was found for the Texas Railroad Commissioner race; it is on the race list.

Freeze and hash

Built Mon Nov 2 2026, 9:54 PM ET. Frozen at Mon Nov 2 2026, 9:54 PM ET.

SHA-256 of data/markers.csv: baadd2506a4f19ac988752d49c9876810309dc86dce05828e4b6be346b60dd7d

SHA-256 of data/checklist.csv: f7df208e779a4dc29262abb413e482fb5dccfd948da7bb5cf20eb81dd87e128e

Point predictions are marked right or wrong on the night. Bars are not edited after the freeze; the hash lets anyone check that later.